Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Oddlots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.
And I'm Joe Wiesenthal.
Joe, it is currently April tenth.
That's right.
It's a Friday. It's a beautiful Friday outside. We always say when we're recording things nowadays, because we never know what's gonna change in the next hour or day or week. But at the moment, there is some sort of ceasefire between the US and Iran. Israel is rather more uncertain at the moment, but it seems that whatever happens in the short term with this particular conflict. that the region, the Gulf region and the Middle East has already been vastly, vastly changed.
Yeah, it seems almost certain of that in many different dimensions. I mean, look, you know, first of all, there's just been the literal physical damage. You can have a ceasefire, but there's gotta be energy and time to get expended, etc. Then of course, and we already have done an episode, for example, about Dubai real estate in particular, or Dubai in particular, and the question of like, here's this country that was perceived really by people around the world as maybe one of the most stable places that you could live. And obviously some of that is being called into question. But then like, you know, here is just a it's just a giga a gigantic war and wars, even short ones potentially, have all kinds of ripple effects and scars and so forth.
And it'll change obviously the course of the region.
Yeah, the way I think about it is the Gulf region was sort of a center of let's say three things. So energy,
mm-hmm,
oil and resulting petrochemicals, which we've talked a lot about. Capital. Capital. There's a lot of money emanating from the region because of its oil wealth. And that flows into all sorts of things from you know US tech stocks to infrastructure investments and all of that. And then thirdly, it's well, I guess I could add trade. It's a purveyor of trade routes for sure. But setting that aside, thirdly, it's also a capital of living standards and this idea of we're gonna build a diversified Gulf city state where Where people are. People can come and live. And we sort of talked about on the Dubai episode. But today we're going to be talking about maybe all three or four of those things and what this particular conflict actually means for them, for a region that has really built itself around this idea of energy, capital, living standards, and trade.
And then the one thing I would just point out is that obviously the region has almost a reputation for being in some version of constant war or there is constant tension, et cetera, right? So at various tim uh, do you disagree?
I mean, the Iran threat has always been there, but one of the key themes of the UAE, for instance, becoming this haven of stability was that it wasn't expected to erupt in this way.
That is indisputable and that is part of why it's so shocking. But, you know, tensions in the Middle East on some level is almost like a cliche in the news, et cetera. And so the c you know, over years we have multiple Gulf Wars, et cetera, the war in Gaza that's been taking place over the last multiple years. I mean, there's just extraordinary a long history of uh conflict.
Yes. So we are going to be talking about how the latest conflict is going to impact the region potentially forever. So we have the perfect guest. I'm very happy to say uh we are going to be speaking with the chief emerging markets economist over at Bloomberg Economics, Zia Daoud, someone we've spoken to before. Uh I think our last episode with with him was about Egypt, but someone I used to speak to a lot more when I was actually based in Abu Dhabi.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–8:35
2
What are the immediate physical impacts of the Iran‑UAE conflict on Gulf infrastructure?
8:35–12:16
3
How has the Gulf’s traditional reliance on energy, capital, and trade been challenged by the war?
12:16–33:03
4
Why did Gulf leaders consider the war a ‘worst‑case nightmare’ for their stability?
33:03–44:15
5
How is the US security umbrella performing for Gulf states amid the conflict?
44:15–47:47
Speakers
6 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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