On Point

ep 249 | The myth of missing the ten best days

03 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you’d be if you’d missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during...

ep 248 | Is it time to dump the deposits?

25 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Term deposit investors have had it pretty good in recent years, but that’s changing quickly and many savers are on borrowed time. Interest rates are...

ep 247 | The week ahead - German election, a raft of local results and NVIDIA earnings

22 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The German election will be a highlight of the international week, with the first results due early Monday morning here in New Zealand. The key releas...

ep 246 | Should we let Trump put us off investing?

18 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We’re a month into President Trump's second term and there’s 47 more to go, which means investors need to make peace with a less predictable m...

ep 245 | The week ahead - Another bumper OCR cut, and maybe the RBA's first move?

16 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week’s economic highlight will be the global flash PMIs for February, which are due on Friday. Last month these pointed to a good start to year...

ep 244 | Will we see some green shoots this earnings season?

11 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The local reporting season begins this week, and we've got high hopes for a more optimistic tone. It’s been a very difficult couple of years for...

ep 243 | The week ahead - US inflation, Jerome Powell and (sigh) more tariff talk!

08 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Looking ahead, this week’s economic highlights will include the latest inflation report in the US, as well as the NFIB survey and the retail sales r...

ep 242 | Where's the New Zealand economy at right now?

06 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The OCR has fallen from its peak, but unemployment is up and it still feels like we're in recession. Meanwhile, the currency is in a slump and we&...

ep 241 | Filling the void with fixed income

04 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Fixed income can provide investors with a stable, reliable income stream for a modest level of risk. If you’re staring down the barrel of sliding te...

ep 240 | The week ahead - Tariff tensions to keep markets on edge

01 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week, the focus will be on President Trump's tariffs, how markets react and whether we see any retaliation from major US trading partners. Ke...

ep 239 | Why most S&P 500 targets for 2025 are likely to be wrong

28 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last month or two the Wall Street gurus have firmed up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 will finish 2025. The majority have a year-e...

ep 238 | The week ahead | Mag7 earnings incoming!

25 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The last week of January will be a busy one, with central banks in focus as the Federal Reserve in the US and the European Central Bank are set to ann...

ep 237 | Is the Fed set to pause next week?

20 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve in the US meets next week, and there’s a good chance they do nothing. That would see the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate, the ...

ep 236 | The biggest investment lesson of 2024

15 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2024, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. The one that stood out for me was ...

ep 235 | Summer encore - What's the better investment, shares or property?

12 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The shares or property debate remains alive and well, especially in housing-obsessed New Zealand. Some property people will never touch shares. Likewi...

ep 234 | Summer encore - There's more to mortgage rates than the OCR

08 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There’s a lot of excitement out there amongst borrowers, particularly those with a mortgage renewal coming up. The message boards are full of people...

ep 233 | Summer encore - Six predictions for 2025

01 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As a new year begins, there are a raft of questions over what to expect from financial markets in 2025. Will the New Zealand economy recover from rec...

ep 232 | Summer encore - Shares are more predictable than you think

27 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There’s a lot of good investment wisdom out there. Ensure you’re well-diversified, stick to quality assets, don’t overtrade and keep fees to a m...

ep 231 | Summer encore - Do we need a capital gains tax in New Zealand?

22 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Talk of a capital gains tax (or a CGT) found its way back into the headlines during 2024. It’s hard to see a National-led government making any such...

ep 230 | Is a Kiwibank IPO on the cards, and would it be a good thing?

16 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Kiwibank has been in the news again, with the Government announcing it will consider tapping KiwiSaver funds and other large investors for another $50...

ep 229 | The week ahead - GDP figures are due, so are we still in recession?

14 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's plenty to monitor across the world this week. Flash PMIs for December will be out early in the week, while another highlight will be the PCE i...

ep 228 | Six predictions for 2025

10 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As this year draws to a close, there are a raft of questions over what to expect from financial markets in 2025. Will the New Zealand economy recover ...

ep 227 | The week ahead - US inflation in the spotlight ahead of next week's Fed meeting

07 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week the global highlight will be the November CPI report in the US on Wednesday. This will be closely watched as investors look ahead to the fin...

ep 226 | Stumbling Spark's string of missteps

03 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been a good year for the local sharemarket. The NZX 50 index is up 11.0 per cent so far, which sees it on track for its best year in four. Most...

ep 225 | The week ahead - a crucial US jobs report in focus

30 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week is a busy one in terms of international economic releases. The focus will be on the US jobs report, which is out on Friday. This will be a k...

ep 224 | Will we get a "Santa rally" in 2024?

26 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US sharemarket has pushed higher since the election, building on the strong gains we saw leading up to it. The S&P 500 index is up 27 per cent...

ep 223 | The week ahead - it’s RBNZ week, but will it cut by 25, 50 or 75?

23 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The final RBNZ meeting of 2024 is on Wednesday. Markets expect another 50-basis point cut, but could the RBNZ go bigger or smaller? We'll also get the...

ep 222 | There's more to mortgage rates than the OCR

19 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There’s a lot of excitement out there amongst borrowers, particularly those with a mortgage renewal coming up. The message boards are full of people...

ep 221 | The week ahead - Global growth indicators and NVIDIA earnings in focus

16 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

November flash PMIs will be among the key international releases, with these due from most of the major economies on Friday. Investors will also be wa...

ep 220 | A showdown is looming between Trump and the Fed

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week's Federal Reserve press conference was a little different to usual, coming hot on the heels of the election. Fed Chair Jerome Powell fielded...

ep 219 | The week ahead - can the Trump trade keep pushing markets higher?

09 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The latest inflation figures will be a highlight in the US this week, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday in Dallas about ...

ep 218 | Shares are more predictable than you think

05 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There’s a lot of good investment wisdom out there. Ensure you’re well-diversified, stick to quality assets, don’t overtrade and keep fees to a m...

ep 217 | The week ahead - brace yourself for the biggest week of the year!

02 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Brace yourself, this week will be one of the biggest of the year for investors! It's not often a Federal Reserve meeting takes a back seat to other ev...

ep 216 | Are you prepared for a Trump victory?

29 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US presidential election is almost upon us, and recent polls suggest it’s too close to call. That bodes well for former President Donald Trump, ...

ep 215 | The week ahead - five of the Mag-7 set to report earnings!

26 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's a busy week ahead on the US economic calendar, with PCE inflation for September as well as the latest ISM index and the all important jobs report...

ep 214 | What’s the better investment, shares or property?

22 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The shares or property debate remains alive and well, especially in housing-obsessed New Zealand. Some property people will never touch shares. Likewi...

ep 213 | The week ahead - the global earnings season ramps up

19 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week's key releases will be October flash PMIs, the Fed Beige Book, European consumer confidence and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. The international qu...

ep 212 | Has the local sharemarket turned a corner?

15 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Reserve Bank's bumper OCR cut gave the local sharemarket a boost earlier this month. With further reductions expected in the coming months, New Ze...

ep 211 | The week ahead - will the inflation report open the door for another big OCR cut?

12 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The international corporate reporting season ramps up this week, with numerous heavyweights set to announce earnings. With the S&P 500 in the US s...

ep 210 | October encore - The case for gold

09 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Gold has been one of the best performing assets these last two years, rising more than 40 per cent and even outpacing the S&P 500 index in the US....

ep 209 | October encore - Farmers make great investors, here's why

06 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora o...

ep 208 | October encore - Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money

03 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s ...

ep 207 | The strong NZ dollar - what’s driven the rebound?

30 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The New Zealand dollar has rebounded strongly in the last couple of months. It’s been sitting comfortably above US$0.63 in recent days, up eight per...

ep 206 | The week ahead - will confidence bounce in the QSBO?

28 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US labour market will be in focus this week, as investors speculate on the likelihood of another 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve ...

ep 205 | Don't fight the Fed?

24 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve started its easing cycle with a bang last week. It cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.50 per cent, a bigger move than some had expected. ...

ep 204 | The week ahead - retail earnings in focus on the NZX

21 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Global growth will be in focus this week, with the release of flash purchasing managers’ indices for September. We’ll also get the latest PCE infl...

ep 203 | Is now a good time to buy a house?

17 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been a difficult few years for first home buyers. Just when borrowing costs started falling in 2020, prices started rising sharply to offset an...

ep 202 | The week ahead - a US rate cut looms, but will the Fed go big?

14 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Looking ahead, this week is shaping up as a very busy one with some extremely important events taking place across markets. The Federal Reserve decisi...

ep 201 | Do we need a capital gains tax in New Zealand?

10 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Talk of a capital gains tax is back in the headlines. It’s hard to see a National-led government making any such changes to our tax system. However,...

ep 200 | The week ahead - it's debate time again, but with Trump vs Harris

07 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation will be in focus in the US this week, with the August consumer price index due on Wednesday. The annual rate of increase fell below 3.0% for...

ep 199 | Will mortgage rates fall as much as you're hoping?

03 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Interest rates are headed lower, which will take the pressure off household budgets and give many homeowners a reprieve. Borrowers are right to feel m...

ep 198 | The week ahead - will the US jobs report boost soft landing hopes?

31 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It'll be a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday. However, there will still be plenty to monito...

ep 197 | All that glitters...

27 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Gold has been one of the best performing assets these last two years, rising more than 40 per cent and even outpacing the S&P 500 index in the US....

ep 196 | The week ahead - business confidence, PCE inflation and NVIDIA

24 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation will be in the spotlight this week with PCE inflation due in the US on Friday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next month. The la...

ep 195 | How do markets usually perform after rate cuts?

20 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week’s OCR cut received a lot of attention, and rightly so. It was the first since 2020, and it marked the end of 15 months at 5.50 per cent, t...

ep 194 | The week ahead - let the earnings landslide begin!

17 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week was a very good one for local investors. The NZX 50 enjoyed its seventh positive week out of the last eight, rising 4.0%, the strongest week...

ep 193 | Will the reporting season give any cause for cheer?

13 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The local reporting season ramps up next week, putting many of our largest listed corporates under the microscope. It’s started more slowly than usu...

ep 192 | The week ahead - will the RBNZ cut the OCR this week?

10 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's a huge week here in New Zealand, with one of the most eagerly anticipated Reserve Bank decisions in recent memory due on Wednesday afternoon. The...

ep 191 | What's driving the market volatility, and will it continue?

06 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's been a rough start to August for financial markets, with US shares suffering the biggest decline in almost two years on Monday. A sharp bout ...

ep 190 | Did the Fed just make a policy mistake?

05 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week. However, it left financial markets in no doubt that a cut is imminent, with Chair Jero...

ep 189 | The week ahead - how much will unemployment rise this week?

03 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What a week! The S&P 500 fell another 2.1% last week after a surprise jump in the US unemployment rate raised the prospect of a sharper economic s...

ep 188 | Money Month - three simple rules for financial success

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

August is "Money Month", an annual public awareness campaign run by Te Ara Ahunga Ora. Also known as the Retirement Commission, Te Ara Ahunga Ora is t...

ep 187 | More twists in the US election tale

30 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been a pivotal month in US politics, with plenty of action since that infamous June debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden has steppe...

ep 186 | The week ahead - big tech earnings in the spotlight

27 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Another eventful week looms, with all eyes on monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. Key economic rele...

ep 185 | Rate cuts are coming, what should investors do?

23 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will soon be headed lower, and this will have important implications for savers, borrowers and investors. Financial marke...

ep 184 | The week ahead - the US sector rotation is on!

20 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's been a busy couple of weeks! The S&P 500 fell 2.0% last week as investors rotated out of the high-flying sectors and into some of the laggards wh...

ep 183 | Mid-year encore - The trouble with non-tradables inflation

14 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The latest quarterly inflation figures are out this week. These will be closely watched, in particular the domestic inflation that has worried the Res...

ep 182 | Mid-year encore - Currencies and share investing

10 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This was a popular episode from earlier in the year, and the messages are timeless to take a listen if you missed it the first time around! If you buy...

ep 181 | The week ahead - will the RBNZ give anything away?

06 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week’s global economic highlight will be the US inflation report, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify to Congress on Tuesday...

ep 180 | Mid-year wrap, and a look ahead to the second half

02 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The first six months of the year is behind us, so let's take a look at the best and worst performers, before turning to the rest of the year. The seco...

ep 179 | The week ahead - elections in France and the UK

29 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Politics will be in the spotlight with the first round of French legislative elections on Sunday, then the UK general election on Thursday. In the US,...

ep 178 | Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money

25 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s ...

ep 177 | The week ahead - what did the GDP report tell us?

22 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation will be in the spotlight this week, with the PCE report for May due in the US as well as flash CPIs in several European economies and the To...

ep 176 | It’s election debate time, and Trump's in the box seat

18 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We're five months out from the US presidential election and the campaign is set to heat up next week. Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the ...

ep 175 | The week ahead - why is European politics rattling markets?

15 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.6% and hit new highs last week, as investors were encouraged by a softer than expected May inflation report. In contrast,...

ep 174 | What could turn the local market around?

11 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There’s been a raft of bad news from locally listed companies over the past several weeks, with more than a dozen either downgrading earnings guidan...

ep 173 | The week ahead - should we expect a housing market rebound?

08 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week will be an eventful one in the US, with the June Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the May consumer price index re...

ep 172 | Farmers often make great investors, here’s why

04 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora o...

ep 171 | The week ahead - did the Budget change OCR expectations?

01 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Global politics are in the spotlight this week, with a presidential election in Mexico, elections for the European parliament to be held on June 6-9, ...

ep 170 | The trouble with non-tradables inflation

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Reserve Bank left the Official Cash Rate unchanged last week, and it's forecast track suggests there will be no respite for borrowers until next y...

ep 169 | The week ahead - what should we expect from Budget 2024?

25 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation indicators across some of the major regions will be in focus this week, with PCE inflation due in the US, as well as preliminary measures in...

ep 168 | Sell in May and go away?

21 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There are many sayings in the investment world, and one that always comes up at this time of year is “sell in May and go away”. The adage emerged ...

ep 167 | The week ahead - flash PMIs, an OCR decision and the latest NVIDIA result

18 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's plenty for investors to keep an eye on in the week ahead, with some of the key releases likely to be the flash PMIs for some of the major econ...

ep 166 | The diverging outlook for global central banks

15 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We’re starting to see an increasing divergence in the outlook for growth, inflation and the likely next move from many of the world’s central bank...

ep 165 | The week ahead - how healthy is the US consumer?

11 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The S&P 500 in the US was up 1.9% last week, while the UK and Europe were stronger still, rising 2.7% and 3.2% respectively. In contrast, it was a tou...

ep 164 | Women make great investors, so what’s holding them back?

07 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Some women are apprehensive about investing, but there’s plenty of evidence they’re better at it than their male counterparts. There have been sev...

ep 163 | The week ahead - what does rising unemployment mean for markets?

04 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It was the second good week in a row for global sharemarkets, with many continuing to rebound from the weakness we saw in April. Markets still see int...

ep 162 | Currencies and share investing

30 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

If you buy a share or exchange traded fund (ETF) listed outside New Zealand, it’s not just changes in the share price that will determine your retur...

ep 161 | The week ahead - how high is the unemployment rate set to rise?

27 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After an April sell-off saw the US market fall 5.5% from its all time, the S&P 500 rebounded 2.7% last week, its best performance in almost six months...

ep 160 | The week ahead - will inflation fall enough for the RBNZ?

13 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets were volatile last week, with another stronger than expected inflation report in the US rattling investors and pushing out hope for interest r...

ep 159 | Can Japanese shares continue their stellar run?

09 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Several sharemarkets hit new highs during the first few months of this year, but the most significant milestone of all came in Japan, where the Nikkei...

ep 158 | The week ahead - what should we expect from the RBNZ on Wednesday?

06 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The highlight of the coming week will be the consumer price index report in the US, after two months of stronger-than-expected figures. The odds of a ...

ep 157 | Q1 recap and what to watch in Q2

03 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would’ve expected. World shares ros...

ep 156 | The week ahead - US labour market and manufacturing in focus

30 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It'll be another holiday-shortened week, with markets closed on Monday in New Zealand, Australia and the UK (while the US market will open as normal o...

ep 155 | Trusts, tax rates and PIEs

26 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

If you hold some of your investments in a trust, your tax rate is going up next week. You might need to rethink the types of assets you own and the in...

ep 154 | The week ahead - what does the recession mean for interest rates?

23 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It was a very strong week for sharemarkets in most regions, with confidence interest rate cuts are just around the corner growing and financial market...

ep 153 | Is it time to ditch the term deposits?

19 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Short-term deposits are offering great value to investors right now, but don’t get content. Within the next six months interest rates could start fa...

ep 152 | The week ahead - is the Bank of Japan set to upstage the Fed?

16 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Central banks will be in the spotlight this week, with monetary policy decisions due in Japan and Australia on Tuesday, then in the US and UK on Wedne...

ep 151 | What might interest deductibility changes mean for the property market?

12 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Property investors are set to benefit from changes to interest deductibility rules, which will kick in at the end of this month. The Government is rev...

ep 150 | The week ahead - will the US inflation report spoil the party?

10 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The highlight of the coming week will be the US consumer price index on Tuesday. After a hotter than expected release in January, markets will be watc...