Chapter 1: What makes this F1 Championship prediction so challenging?
Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 Podcast with Matt and Tommy. We are finally here for one of the most highly anticipated... videos, podcasts that we do all year predicting the entire table from last to first and then reflecting on it at the end of the year of just how bad or good, sometimes good-ish.
Really?
Kind of. Maybe one or two. But I think with this one, we might well be truly cooked, Tommy, because it's a massive regulation shift. We don't fully know the pecking order, but this is what makes...
doing this so much fun it's fun it's so so difficult i am not joking when i say particularly my top like six maybe like eight to top eight i have changed multiple times like it's one of those where like no matter what you do it feels like you're disrespecting someone basically yes it's crazy isn't it
It really is. That's something that I felt the entire way through. It wasn't even the top eight.
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Chapter 2: Who is predicted to finish in 22nd place and why?
I was genuinely putting people... And I have this every year.
Yeah, I'm like, they can't be seventh. I never get used to it. And then I'm like, oh, but they can't be seventh. They can't be seventh. I can't put this person 19th.
Oh, but I don't think their car's going to be very good. So therefore, I'm going to put them there. It's going to be fascinating. I'm sure every single one of you will agree entirely with our predictions.
I just hope we disagree. Please don't do the same top five like last year.
That would be insane this year in particular. Last year was fair enough because it was the end of the regulations. This is one of my favourite podcasts to do. It genuinely is.
Let's get straight into the news and start... with 22nd position.
Who is winning the wooden spoon this year where we have 11 teams on the grid? My 22nd place. And again, I'm going to say this once. I'm going to say this 100 times. No disrespect. Sergio Perez. I'm sorry. Look, this is not going to go down well for Perez fans. However, it was a head-to-head duel, spoilers, head-to-head duel between the two Cadillac drivers. I have not put Bottas 12th.
I'm going to tell you that right now. It was a head-to-head duel between the two Cadillac drivers, and I have rather humorously backed Bottas the entire way through. It's a head-to-head war between me and Tommy because, of course, he is backing Perez for this year. I'm backing my boy Bottas. So, look, I have to put Perez 22nd. He will, I'm sure, do a good job in that Cadillac.
But he is going to be restricted massively by the machinery he has. And I firmly believe the Cadillac will be the slowest team throughout the entire year. And therefore, I'm sorry, but it had to be done.
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Chapter 3: What factors influence the prediction for 21st place?
unlock something in the car, getting some good points finishes and somehow thrusting himself to 14th, which will seem like a championship win. And I think that might even well be a quote we hear at some point this year that Fernando Lozano has had the greatest season of his life and that 14th feels like a championship to him considering the start of the year. But let's see.
It's dire straits at Aston Martin right now. And it sucks. It sucks for Fernando. We want to see him at the front. It was great when he was challenging a few years ago in 2023 and getting podiums, but just can't see that happening this year, sadly.
14th place I have gone for Esteban Ocon. I know Haas have had a very good test.
Someone's become an Oli Behrman fanboy overnight.
Well, I mean it's one higher than he finished last year for Esteban Ocon. I would love Esty Bessie to turn his form around but I don't know, he had a really disappointing end to the season and kind of lost his mojo a little bit.
And there was a lot of races where he seemed quite anonymous and he got these really big results, which I think he will still probably manage to do in some of the kind of wacky races when we have...
As we mentioned, I'm of the same opinion of you that the top eight in particular, it's going to be very hard to break into because it seems like there will be a chasm between them, that he can be the one that does deliver points.
But I've just been a little disappointed with his form recently, and I would love to see him turn it around, but I think he had a bit of a disappointing end to last season, and that's why I put him down in 14th. Okay, let's go to 13th position, Tommy. 13th. I've gone for Nico Hülkenberg, which is quite high up for Audi, I'm fully aware.
I was quite impressed with Audi and how they managed to turn around quite a rubbish start, I think, in the test and maybe look a bit stronger towards the end, whether they can continue that development throughout the season. But I think, you know, if you're maybe a more sensible choice is to put Williams higher and Audi lower.
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Chapter 4: Why is the prediction for 20th place considered controversial?
That is wild. Because you've never gone, or I've never gone, I've also gone for.
Yeah, true. New year, new us.
I could cry. This is unbelievable. Who are we? Because, of course, you have backed the Audi hype train. I have backed the Williams hype train. I've even put Fernando Alonso higher than you. Can we just talk about that for a second? Who is the true Fernando Alonso fanboy on this podcast? Let's talk about that for a second.
I know you feel that that's delusion, but do you not think that they will turn it around eventually once they've got the data halfway through the season? Do you think they'll be too far back?
I think they'll be too far back by that point, potentially. I know they had a whole season of being absolute stinkers, but 2015, Fernando Alonso finished 17th in the championship. And he only scored two points more than Marcus Ericsson. He's an amazingly talented driver, but if you've not got the machinery, you can't.
you can't deliver so i do think aston martin is going to be an absolute horrendous year and i do think that they will get to the point maybe i wouldn't you're kind of more confident maybe by mid-season we won't even be talking about it i think they will of all the teams that will progress through the field aston martin will be the most they kind of have to be otherwise they will literally you know go they will literally not finish races if they don't progress
So I do think that they can literally go from being last to not finishing a race to maybe like the seventh fastest team. But do you kind of see more maybe that they could be like the fifth fastest by the end?
Yeah, I think it firmly depends on how quickly you believe this will be turned around. Because if they manage to do it in five races, all of a sudden you're going, oh, actually, hold on. Maybe 16th is a bit too low. If they don't manage it till five races till the end, then 14th is the most ridiculous prediction I've ever done. And Fernando's probably finishing 20th.
So it's fascinating because we don't know the answers. Aston Martin probably don't even know the answers. I know for a fact it's probably that SpongeBob meme with everything being on fire right now because it was an absolute disaster of a test for them. But you just think of all the personnel that are there. How could they not turn it around? But it really does depend.
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