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Chapter 1: What are the implications of healthcare cuts to fund the war?
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Chapter 2: How are young Republicans reacting to Trump's war strategy?
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Chapter 3: What are the economic consequences of the ongoing conflict in Iran?
Right now, our listeners can get 50% off their new Simply Safe system at simplysafe.com slash crooked. That's simplysafe.com slash crooked. There's no safe like Simply Safe. Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Lovett. Tommy's off this week. I think he's with his friend Lindsay at Disney World.
Yeah, Lindsay was saying that he wanted to go to Epcot and get the UK and France to take over Morocco. I don't know what that was about.
I love the countries at Epcot. All right. On today's show, we'll talk about how Trump is touting diplomatic progress with Iran by threatening the country with war crimes. Why most experts think we're all underestimating the economic disaster that's coming. And Republicans' new plan to pay for the war by cutting your health care.
Chapter 4: How is Trump's approach to diplomacy affecting market stability?
We'll also talk about the new fight between House and Senate Republicans that's keeping the Department of Homeland Security shut down while Congress takes a two-week vacation. And of course, the critical work of building Trump's ballroom is about to begin, even though no one wants it and the design makes no sense. Then you'll hear Tommy's interview with Iowa Senate candidate Josh Turek.
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All right, let's get to the news. We are now entering the second month of Donald Trump's brief excursion in Iran. 50,000 Americans are now deployed in the Middle East. More than 8,700 people have died. Tens of thousands are wounded. Millions have been displaced.
Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to the worst oil shock in history and a global economic crisis that's getting worse by the day.
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Chapter 5: What is the significance of the DHS funding debate among Republicans?
The president keeps trying to calm the markets by claiming that there's been, quote, great progress in direct negotiations with Iran, while simultaneously threatening to destroy the entire country's access to electricity and water, which would be a war crime. and something you definitely say when you're on the verge of a diplomatic breakthrough.
On Sunday night, after multiple reports that Trump is nearing a decision on sending in ground troops to take control of the Strait and or remove nuclear material from inside Iran, the president talked to reporters on Air Force One about the fateful choice that's weighing heavily on his mind.
I did something today. I just got these information.
How beautiful the ballrooms were. Here's another view.
This is coming from right opposite the Treasury Building.
Beautiful Capitol.
beautiful building one of the i think it'll be the finest ballroom of its kind anywhere in the world a lot of people are giving it really good reviews some are giving it reviews without even seeing the building just like we're ahead of schedule on the ballroom in a much bigger way we're ahead of schedule with the red extremely well in that thing are you kidding me you never know with iran because we negotiate with them and then we always have to
We'll make a deal with them, pretty sure, whether it's possible or we won't. I think we've had regime change. We can't do much better than that. The regime that was really bad, really evil, was the first one that was done. The second was appointed.
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Chapter 6: How does the Iowa Senate candidate view prairie populism?
and the third group of people that seem to be much more reasonable. It truly is regime change.
He really did it. He did the State of the Union segue that we always joke about between domestic and foreign policy, except it was, and as we are ahead of schedule on the ballroom, so are we ahead of schedule in Iran.
It's actually a great metaphor, I think, but maybe we can save that for the ballroom section. of the show. Unbelievable. It's an unbelievable, unbelievable.
All right. I got the war going on, the oil shock. There's this DHS shutdown. I got to go back to the press and the plane and Air Force One and just talk to them. I'm going to talk. I can take some questions. So I got some pictures of the ballroom.
Chapter 7: What challenges are farmers facing due to Trump's policies?
That's how he starts.
Sorry, guys. I can't focus on the war today. I also got a board meeting at the Kennedy Center. I'm late too.
So, Lovett, what are your theories about why Trump seems so eager to allege progress in negotiations that no one else has been able to confirm are even happening?
I actually think it does make sense. So what's happening? He is signaling to markets that the conflict won't escalate with the hopes that that reduces the volatility of the markets. That allows also those who support the conflict to say those who are afraid that it's spiraling out of control, that Trump is actually being quite reasonable.
And then when he says the regime's already been changed, the new guys are so reasonable, they're easy to work with, he's suggesting that while maybe in the past they've used negotiation as a cover to murder everyone in the room or do strikes on Iran, that is a new group of people.
And you can take my word that you can trust what I'm saying now because I genuinely want someone in Iran I can work with. The other side- You mean he's sending that signal to Iran, yeah. And then the other side of it, though, is Trump is trying to kind of put an asbestos blanket on the fire he started in the markets.
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Chapter 8: How is the healthcare system in Iowa impacted by political decisions?
That is not just because he wants the consequences of the ongoing conflict to have less of an impact on the US. He wants to increase his leverage over Iran. The less pain we're experiencing, the more leverage he has. in the conflict, which frees him up to escalate, which suggests that escalation won't be as big of a price for the U.S. to pay.
And when he says that we're already negotiating, Iran knows whether that's true or not, that that's Trump telling the world that if it falls apart, Iran is to blame. So it's Trump is trying to lower the cost of what happens if he decides to escalate that. That to me is like but the only way that makes sense is if Trump is someone who only thinks short term
and discounts the cost of everyone thinking he's a liar in the future. But that's what he does. Trump is only a rational actor in the very short term. And so I think that's how you kind of can make sense of the threats of escalation and the promise of negotiation.
Yeah, I was thinking about this. Like if so, if you're Donald Trump and you have decided privately that you have painted yourself into a corner and that you're kind of fucked and need to get out of this war and you're looking for an off ramp. What are your options for how to communicate that publicly? Because it's I mean, no president would really want to do this, but especially Trump.
You're not going to be like, I really want a deal, right? You're not going to be like, come to the table. So you have to act like everything is going wonderfully and they're the ones who are begging for a deal. And you also bet that no one's going to believe them because they're the Iranian regime. So if they contradict you, then who cares?
And so part of this, I think, is to just say like, yeah, we've dominated them so severely. that they are just begging for a deal and things are going well while, like you said, communicating, I guess, to Iran that you actually do want some negotiations. And we should just know, like, yeah, could there be secret negotiations happening here and there? Like, maybe, but...
You know, Pakistan has offered to host the negotiations. They already hosted some countries. The United States and Iran were not there. No representatives were there. The Iranian foreign ministry said today that, like, there's been no talks directly with the United States since the 28th, since February 28th, and that there won't be any talks until the military campaign ends.
Also, The New York Times said this piece, too, that it is unclear who's in charge. And this is, like, according to Western and American intelligence officials. And so they don't really know who they're negotiating with or who has the authority to make decisions in Iran right now, though I noticed this from intelligence officials in the piece too.
It says, what's more, officials say hardliners within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have become more influential, exerting more power than the religious leadership nominally in charge. So not a great sign that the IRGC, who are the most hardline hardliners in the whole country, are the ones in charge right now.
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