Ep. 2313 - UH-OH: Warning Signs for Republicans?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Today on the show, we're going to go through Republican weaknesses leading into 2026. What do Republicans need to do to reverse the results of this week politically? We will also be getting to Sidney Sweeney and that amazing interview that she recently did. And we will also be getting to the government shutdown. Will it continue? When will it end? First, Friendly Fire returns Wednesday night, November 19th at 7 p.m. Eastern on Daily Wire+. What exactly is Friendly Fire? Well, We are glad you asked. It's the show where Matt Walsh, Michael Moles, Andrew Klavan, and I get together to disagree for the entire internet to watch and comment on in real time. This time, we're world premiering the official trailer for the Pendragon cycle, The Rise of the Merlin.
You've seen the teaser. Now get ready for the trailer that's going to blow you away. It's all happening on Friendly Fire, Wednesday, November 19th at 7 p.m. Eastern on Daily Wire Plus. Well, folks, there are some lessons that must be learned by Republicans from the elections of this week. The reality is, as I talked about a couple of days ago, the elections this week weren't just obviously in Virginia or in New Jersey or in New York City. Actually, Republicans did pretty poorly across the board. There's a point being made by Matt Cottonetti, now of the Wall Street Journal, He says the off-year Democratic wave flooded Republican safe harbors. Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in Virginia's House of Delegates.
They plan to use their governing trifecta, control of the governor's mansion and both legislative chambers to redraw the state's congressional map in their own favor. New Jersey Democrats now enjoy their largest assembly majority in 52 years. Georgia Democrats won two seats on the Public Service Commission. That's the state's utility board. No Democrat has won even a single race there since 2007. That is 18 years ago. One of the reasons for that is because the electricity prices have been spiking and have continued to kind of softly go up during President Trump's term. This obviously should be warning sign for Republicans. And when you look at the 2026 election, the importance of Republicans retaining the House, the Senate, it looks like Republicans are in fairly decent shape to retain.
In order for Democrats to actually take the Senate in the next election cycle, they would have to flip a rather unlikely seat, like say Iowa. But in Congress, where Republicans basically have zero margin at this point, Democrats do not need to flip very many seats in order to take the House. So there are approximately, according to Cook Political Report, 16 toss-up seats. Those toss-up seats, right now, 10 of those are held by Republicans. So that's not great for Republicans. When you look at another eight that lean Republican and 10 that lean Democrat, you're talking about kind of a total possible variance of 34 seats. Now, Republicans would have to do really, really poorly to lose all of those.
But again, they don't have to lose many of those to lose control of the House. If they lose control of the House, all you're going to get all day long are hearings and investigations and impeachments. And we know that all of this is the case. And we also know that it wouldn't solely be due to anything that President Trump is doing. Midterm elections almost always go the direction of the party that is out of power.
What warning signs did recent off‑year elections send about Republican prospects for 2026?
Since World War II, according to Newsweek, the president's party has lost an average of 26 House seats and three to four Senate seats in midterms. When the president's approval rating is below 50%, the losses tend to be more severe. Presidents with a sub 50% job approval have seen their parties lose an average of 37 House seats, as opposed to when the president is popular, where they lose about 14 seats on average. So again, Republican enthusiasm seems to not be nearly as high as it is when President Trump is on the ballot, obviously. And a sinking economy, or at least an economy that doesn't feel as though it is soaring, is having a significant downstream impact.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:56
2
What warning signs did recent off‑year elections send about Republican prospects for 2026?
2:56–17:48
3
How could Latino voter shifts and immigration coverage hurt Republican turnout?
17:48–22:00
4
Why is the economy described as shaky and how could that affect midterm outcomes?
22:00–23:39
5
How are stock market concentration and high PE ratios shaping investor behavior?
23:39–54:22
6
Why did Tesla shareholders approve Elon Musk’s colossal pay package and what does it reveal about market incentives?
54:22–55:01
Speakers
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