The Iran War and the Looming Economic Collapse (w/ John Mearsheimer) | TCHR
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Why is the United States stuck in a stalemate over the Iran war and what are the immediate consequences?
The stalemate in Iran, despite talks between US and Iranian officials at the United Nations, and Donald Trump's apocalyptic threat to annihilate Iran, is a stalemate. The Trump administration, which has achieved none of its original objectives announced when it attacked Iran on february twenty eighth, refuses to concede, defeat, and broker a deal. Iran, for its part, is determined not to Not to end the war, which includes shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and shipping into the Red Sea through the Babel Manda. Until it has exacted high costs for Washington to preclude further attacks. Iran's control of these two critical energy waterways made possible by the gains made by their Houthi allies in Yemen means it has a stranglehold on the global economy.
By driving up the price of oil. Gasoline, diesel Freight and food prices around the globe continue to soar upwards. The Iranians are clearly hoping the economic pressure will continue to Uh to defeat to the defeat of the Republican Party in the midterms. Last week, seven Republicans joined Democrats in a two hundred and twenty to two hundred and four vote to end hostilities with Iran unless authorized by Congress. This is the third time the House has passed such a measure. The cost of the war, deeply unpopular with the American public, is rising. In July, the House approved a ninety-five billion dollar. dollar blueprint to provide some seventy three billion dollars in additional funding for the war. The vote to pass the blueprint, however, was razor thin, two hundred sixteen to two hundred and fourteen with two Republicans opposing the measure.
If there is another Republican defection, the vote will be a tie defeating the proposal. If voters punish Republicans in the midterms for the rising prices caused by the war, there will be heavy pressure to cease funding operations against Iran. Exerting this pressure appears to be Iran's strategy for concluding the conflict. In short, Iran seems to think it does not need to beat the United States but outlast it. If Democrats take control of the House and Senate, they could bar both new funds and previously appropriated funds or unspent funds. Trump, of course, could veto such a bill, but we would but he would have to veto funding for the Pentagon, if not the entire government. Joining me to discuss the Iranian debacle is Professor John Meersheimer.
He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science. at the University of Chicago. Professor Meersheimer, who graduated from West Point and was a captain in the Air Force, is the author of numerous books, including Conventional Deterrence, Lidl Hart and the Weight of History, The tragedy of great power politics, the Israel lobby in U.S. foreign policy, why leaders lie, the truth about lying in international politics, and the great delusion, liberal dreams and international relations. So John, uh I don't know if you uh agree that this appears to be the Iranian policy, but it reminds me of what uh the Iranian regime did to Jimmy Carter.
It does bear marked similarities, that's for sure. Uh I think that the Iranians really have no choice uh but to hang in the fight and not make any major concessions uh to the United States and to Israel, because the United States and Israel I think are not only interested in regime change, they're interested ultimately in wrecking Iran. Breaking it up breaking it up into a series of smaller states if they can. So from Iran's point of view, the United States is an existential threat, and therefore I think the Iranians have a vested interest in fighting to the last person.
Uh let's talk a little bit about the charges. I mean the uh uh of course Trump at the United Nations threatened once again to annihilate Iran. Uh he said that everything will be solved, the war will be over, in his words, after the midterms. And there's talk that after the midterms, uh the United States and perhaps Israel could carry out strikes, uh heavy strikes against Iran. How much credence do you put in that?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the United States stuck in a stalemate over the Iran war and what are the immediate consequences?
0:10–7:32
2
How are Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea affecting global oil prices and inflation?
7:32–15:26
3
What impact do the U.S. mid‑term elections have on funding for the Iran conflict?
15:26–21:40
4
Why does John Mearsheimer say the U.S. has no viable military strategy to win in Iran?
21:40–29:53
5
How effective is the Bessent economic blockade on Iran and why are China and Russia resisting it?
29:53–36:52
6
What are the strategic implications of the Houthis shutting down Saudi oil pipelines and ports?
36:52–42:53
7
Why are Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states considering nuclear deterrents as the war drags on?
42:53–49:10
8
What does the damage to U.S. bases in the Gulf mean for future American military posture in the region?
49:10–56:55
Speakers
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