Full Episode - The Iran War Risks Going Global + Mitch McConnell’s Disappearing Act & How Democrats Can Win In Trump Country

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The Chuck ToddCast 2h 47m 2 speakers 7 chapters transcribed 1 month ago

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Chuck Todd 0:04

This episode of the Chuck Toddcast is brought to you by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about Medicare is somebody quietly trying to steer you somewhere. And you're skeptical of that, as you should be. I get it. I mean, there's a federal lawsuit going on right now over exactly this. Companies that branded themselves as unbiased while allegedly pointing people toward whatever would pay them the most as some sort of broker. So if your default is to distrust everyone in this space, honestly, I get it. I'm a bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole reason I want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent Medicare advisors whose entire model is that their advisors are not paid to push any one plan.

Chuck Todd 0:48

They're just trying to help. Yes, there's compensation that goes with it, but it's across the board is what they're trying to do. At the end of the day, they're advocating for you. They're not the insurance companies themselves. They're an actual person who actually goes through your doctors, your prescriptions, your needs, and then compares them to every single plan available to find the best one that will work for you and hopefully save you a couple of dollars too. And here's the part that sets chapter apart. They don't disappear once you've been enrolled. They will keep advocating for you. They're kind of like almost like a concierge service. You're just there. I need help. You're like customer service.

Chuck Todd 1:26

You know, the plan, you know, help me navigate this again. So you ever get hit with a wrongful medical bill, they'll help you fight it. They want to stay an advocate for you even after you've done this. So look, I get it. I think there's all sorts of space. You see a lot of people are throwing themselves in this health care space. What I like about these chapter folks, I've spent time with them. This is a very transparent organization. It is Medicare and all of its affiliated stuff can be very confusing. The whole point of this is to make this easier and less confusing. OK, so look. Take the skepticism you already have in all of this, point it at your own plan for 20 minutes. It's free. There's no pressure.

Chuck Todd 2:10

And then call chapter today at 980-734-3985. Hello there and welcome to the Thursday episode of the Chuck Todd cast, where I promise politics for the rest of us. Right. A little bit of of normalcy in a world dominated by extremes. At least that's my pledge to you here. Got a nice loaded up pack show. Great guest today, Andy Beshear, current governor of Kentucky. Let's just say he's got a lot of things to say about Biden. Both of Kentucky's U.S. senators who have been in the news this week, whether it's Mitch McConnell and his inability to talk about what's happening with his current situation or Rand Paul and his obsession over Tony Fauci. I will have a little bit more on that in my own. segment here later in a minute.

Chuck Todd 3:08

But we also do a trip through the country. He is, of course, Andy Beshear is the chair of the Democratic Governors Association. So we spend a lot of time in battleground states, also talking about Iowa and Ohio. And we go everywhere on that, including a topic that I'm going to do a bit of a deep dive on here in a on that front. I'll also have a top five list for you. Of course, we'll have some questions. And like I said, I got a busy couple of topics I want to get to, including... Maybe what you don't fully appreciate about what's happening with Iran right now, like I said, where the politics of AI are heading, it's fascinating. And I've had my own unique front row seat on this issue, to put it succinctly.

Chuck Todd 4:05

This anger over data centers ain't about data centers. But I will explain that. And then, of course, we are less than a week away from the start of the final primary sprints. And boy, do we got a big one coming up on August 4th. Multiple states, but the big one being Michigan. So I have a little bit of a campaign notebook to share with you as well. But look... This is a politics podcast, right? Every day, every time I come on, at the end, you know, I always want to begin trying to do my best to assess where are we, right?

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Chapters

7 chapters

1 What is the main topic discussed in this episode? 0:00–11:44 2 Why are Republicans relitigating old culture-war stories instead of addressing current economic and foreign policy issues? 11:44–46:14 3 How many countries are actually involved in the Iran conflict and why does that matter? 46:14–1:19:48 4 Why is Mitch McConnell’s silence sparking concern in Kentucky? 1:19:48–1:22:54 5 How did governors handle COVID decisions and what lessons did Beshear draw? 1:22:54–1:29:13 6 What is Beshear’s pragmatic approach to winning in Trump country and party reforms he proposes? 1:29:13–1:40:32 7 Which independent or independent-minded figures could reshape Senate control and why? 1:40:32–2:47:19

Speakers

2 identified

Chuck Todd 110 min Andy Beshear 34 min

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Topics in this episode

Donald Trump 4 Iran 2 United States 1 Elon Musk 1 AI 2 Israel 1 New York 1 Joe Biden 1 COVID 1 Texas 1 Florida 2 Japan 1

Source

Recorded30 Jul 2026

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Show notes

Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? Then, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci. The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines 03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election 04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP 04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring 05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much 07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base 08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed 09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war 10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war 11:30 This is not a regional war 12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action 13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks 15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains 15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global 16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine 16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran 17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east 18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted 19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles 20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades 21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate 21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia 22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts 23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work 24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries 24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends 25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t 27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in 28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians 29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it 29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies 31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public 31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech 32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it 35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach 37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI 37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech 38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement 40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech 41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support 42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists 44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public 45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics 48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness 48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID 49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were 50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day 51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made 52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals 52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are 53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul 54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic 55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci 55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho 56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out 57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech? 1:04:15 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:05:30 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics 1:06:45 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together 1:07:15 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy” 1:07:45 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game 1:09:30 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week 1:10:00 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky 1:10:45 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy 1:11:15 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest 1:13:00 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents 1:13:30 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical 1:14:00 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad 1:15:00 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell 1:16:30 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump 1:17:15 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public 1:18:00 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it 1:18:45 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed 1:19:15 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence 1:20:00 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell 1:20:45 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination 1:22:00 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci 1:22:45 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID 1:23:15 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci 1:23:45 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history 1:25:30 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives 1:26:00 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly 1:27:00 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan 1:27:45 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate 1:28:15 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations 1:29:45 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid 1:30:15 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky 1:31:15 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic” 1:32:00 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker 1:32:30 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated 1:33:00 How big should the Democratic tent be? 1:34:00 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on 1:34:30 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment? 1:35:15 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again 1:35:45 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering 1:36:30 The president should be directly elected 1:37:00 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong 1:37:45 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage 1:39:15 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders? 1:40:00 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable 1:40:30 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder 1:41:15 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia 1:41:45 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA 1:42:15 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28 1:44:30 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard 1:45:45 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger 1:46:15 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan 1:47:00 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race 1:47:30 Correlation between governor and senate races 1:50:15 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida? 1:50:45 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win 1:52:00 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28 1:52:45 Important to declare presidential candidacy early? 1:53:30 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere 1:54:30 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state? 1:55:15 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable? 1:56:00 Will Doug Jones get DGA help? 1:57:30 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI 1:58:15 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers 1:58:45 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes 2:01:15 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going 2:02:30 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky? 2:04:15 Favorite NBA team 2:05:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Andy Beshear 2:07:00 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate 2:07:30 #5 Todd Achilles 2:10:00 #4 Dan Osborne 2:12:15 #3 Seth Bodnar 2:13:30 #2 Lisa Murkowski 2:14:30 #1 John Fetterman 2:17:15 Ask Chuck 2:18:15 Correction for answer on the last pod 2:20:30 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump? 2:27:45 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it? 2:31:00 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying? 2:34:30 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”? 2:39:45 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ask this episode

“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.