Zvi’s POV: Ilya’s SSI, OpenAI’s o1, Claude Computer Use, Trump’s election, and more
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What does Ilya’s new super‑intelligence startup mean for the end of scaling?
Ilya said that this is no longer the age of scaling. Once again, everyone is looking for the next thing. Scaling the right thing matters more now than ever. So basically, the OpenAI attitude of we'll just add a zero to everything and see what happens is not even what open AI is doing anymore, right? They've moved on to a one because their previous strategy wasn't working. As a result of SP ten forty seven being vetoed. the bill is not being used as the model for other legislation in other places, even though it is obviously the best model legislation that we have available. Instead, people are considering Bills like the one in Texas? which use a use case targeting EU Act style approach. to regulation of AI.
That approach has all of the costs you can imagine and none of the benefits to existential risk. If China wants to knock T S N C out of existence, it can. If I was the US government I would either deliberately have a goal of US chip independence twenty twenty seven, or I would be pretty damn committed to defending Taiwan.
Hello and welcome back to the Cognitive Revolution. Today, Zvoschwitz returns for another wide ranging conversation, as we look back on the major developments in AI, including the technical, strategic, and political that have transpired in the six months since his last appearance. We discuss Ilya's new startup, which aims to go straight to superintelligence, the utility or lack thereof of OpenAI's O one model for things like coding and magic the gathering. The likely impact of Claude's new computer use capabilities, and the recent discourse around the quote unquote end of scaling. We also analyze the complex web of partnerships emerging between big tech companies, the regulatory outlook in the wake of the veto of SB ten forty seven, and of course the latest OpenAI drama, which this time centers around the question of who should and will get what as they convert to a for profit company.
Toward the end we consider the potential impact of Donald Trump's return to the presidency on AI futures, and I Pix V's brain on how the AI safety community should evolve its understanding of individual virtue in this new political reality. On all these topics and more, ZV delivers a mix of strategic analysis and insight that you really can't get anywhere else. Except of course for his blog, Don't Worry About the Vase, which is online at thesv.substack.com. I personally find these exchanges super helpful, both for maintaining general situational awareness and in some cases for challenging my own mental models about how to most effectively work toward beneficial AI outcomes. As always, if you're finding value in the show, we'd appreciate a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or you could just share it with a friend who's trying to make sense of the rapidly evolving AI landscape.
Of course, we welcome your feedback either via our website, cognitive revolution.ai, or by DMing me on your favorite social network. Now, I hope you enjoy this latest discussion with the great Zvey Maschowitz. The Machwitz, welcome back to the Cognitive Revolution. Thanks. I always enjoy it here. So it's been a minute and the pace hasn't slowed down, I wouldn't say, although we can maybe get into the meta discussion and why people seem to be even seeing that question increasingly differently these days. I went back and looked at the timestamp of our last conversation, and it was right after OpenAI and Google had sort of previewed their respective voice modes, and then I I think literally as we were recording, there were like several resignations from OpenAI's safety team.
So then we did a immediate part two to talk about that. And certainly quite a bit has happened in the intervening months. So what I thought we would do is just run it down, get your take on a bunch of stuff. We're both in the business of keeping up with this on a weekly, daily, and hourly basis, but not everybody can do that. So this is kind of the Zoomed out few months recap and analysis. How's that sound? I like it. Yeah, let's do it.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What does Ilya’s new super‑intelligence startup mean for the end of scaling?
0:00–20:04
2
How does the O‑1 model compare to GPT‑4 and what are its practical limits?
20:04–48:25
3
Why are voice‑mode and computer‑use features struggling in current AI products?
48:25–1:15:30
4
Can AI ever play Magic: The Gathering at a high level and what does that imply for AGI?
1:15:30–1:19:38
5
What are the current predictions about AGI timelines and the role of democratic alliances?
1:19:38–1:37:16
6
How does the OpenAI profit‑sharing controversy and the SB 1047 veto affect AI regulation?
1:37:16–2:10:40
7
What is the status of the ARC AGI prize, deep‑fake election concerns, and the AI Manhattan‑project debate?
2:10:40–2:32:23
8
How does virtue ethics guide personal strategy and what are the final take‑aways?
2:32:23–2:35:42
Speakers
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