Could biological warfare cause the next pandemic?
episodePreviously titled “How biological warfare could trigger a global catastrophe” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 6, 2026
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What human behaviors determine whether a pathogen release becomes a catastrophe?
For all our technology and safeguard, perhaps the biggest variable our survival hinges on is human behavior, the decisions scientists make, the choices governments make, even how individuals respond in a crisis. In New York Times bestselling author Annie Jacobson's new book, Biological War, a Scenario, we get a chilling look at a very real and present danger, biological weapons. Hello and welcome to USA Today's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Tuesday, July 28th, 2026. Annie Jacobson is a Pulitzer Prize finalist and investigative journalist, and it's so good to have you here, Annie. Thank you for having me. Anna, your book opens with something genuinely terrifying, how easily a biological weapon can be deployed and how easily that contagion can be spread.
Was there a genuinely terrifying moment for you or a realization that compelled you to write this book?
I was doing an interview with a former Pentagon war planner who planned biological catastrophes at the Pentagon.
Why did Annie Jacobson decide to write a scenario about biological warfare?
And when he said to me that there is very little you can do to prevent catastrophe once a pathogen is released, only things to mitigate extermination, I really took pause. It pretty much took my breath away.
So I was unfamiliar with how the U.S. classifies dangerous pathogens. What are Tier 1 select agents and toxins, and why does that classification matter? And then I want to ask, how and where are they stored?
Interestingly, that is a list that is designated and controlled by the CDC, which everyone's familiar with. The CDC actually reports to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, an organization with a budget twice that of the Defense Department, and yet many Americans are not familiar with HHS. And it is the CDC who decides what is dangerous, what is tier one, what is a selectation.
How are dangerous pathogens classified and who controls the list of Tier 1 agents?
And that is basically based on how lethal a pathogen would be were it to be weaponized and were it to get out. What's fascinating and also horrifying is that the Defense Department classifies a biological incident, a catastrophe, as an attack, an intentional release, but also a lab accident. And so the CDC and the DOD would work together in the event that a tier one select agent, everything from Ebola to plague were to be released. Many of us have heard of BSL-4 and BSL-3 labs in the wake of the COVID pandemic. This refers to biosafety level four. That's a maximum containment facility. BSL-3 is right below that. It's interesting to know that before 9-11, before the anthrax attacks that followed, there were only two BSL-4 labs in the United States of America.
One was at Fort Detrick in Maryland, a Defense Department facility, the other at the CDC headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia. Today, there are between 15 and 17 labs BSL-4 labs in America, many in cities with millions of people living nearby.
For the U.S. government monitoring state actors, who are the clear bad actors here? And can you give me an example of how they've hidden their bioweapons programs in the past?
Yes, it's good to remember that biological weapons are illegal.
What is the role and distribution of BSL‑3 and BSL‑4 labs in the U.S. and why does it matter?
Biological warfare is illegal. And yet, biological weapons exist. And that is of great concern to the U.S. State Department. Specifically, in its 2024 and 2025 report, it pointed to Russia and North Korea identifying those two countries as having active biological weapons programs. And it also points to China and Iran as being countries of concern. I think it's also good to know that there is a lot of research going on under the guise of what is called gain-of-function or dual-use research, whereby scientists are are working to modify pathogens in these BSL-4 and BSL-3 labs under the pretense, or rather premise, that they are working to determine medical countermeasures to prevent a pandemic in the event of the release of a biological pathin.
That is a very dangerous catch-22 situation I learned in reporting this book.
How did we get from American biochemist Polberg's 1971 breakthrough, where he successfully spliced monkey virus DNA into another virus, creating a hybrid that doesn't exist in nature, to where we are today with weaponization?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What human behaviors determine whether a pathogen release becomes a catastrophe?
0:05–1:19
2
Why did Annie Jacobson decide to write a scenario about biological warfare?
1:19–2:21
3
How are dangerous pathogens classified and who controls the list of Tier 1 agents?
2:21–4:07
4
What is the role and distribution of BSL‑3 and BSL‑4 labs in the U.S. and why does it matter?
4:07–7:09
5
Which countries are identified as bioweapons concerns and how have programs been hidden historically?
7:09–10:01
6
How has genetic engineering evolved since the 1970s and what are the risks from AI and dual‑use research?
10:01–13:11
7
What would the first 24–72 hours after a bioweapon release look like and are there intervention points?
13:11–15:23
8
What practical steps and public policy changes could reduce the existential risk of biological weapons?
15:23–16:34