Trump’s Big Budget Bomb
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What is the "Big Budget Bomb" and why is it considered the most dangerous domestic bill?
We live for reasons I will not pretend to understand. In an age when the only truly bipartisan idea Is that landmark legislation demands triple B literation? President Joe Biden's signature proposal was build back better. На президент Трамп із йок із президенції йод all of us. To his big beautiful bill.
Big
beautiful that gorgeous big beautiful bill. Let me suggest another name for it. I'll even stay on trend. The big budget bomb. I'm recording this on Wednesday, May twenty first. It's always possible things will change. But as of right now. The damage this thing will do to the budget, if it detonates, is hard to properly convey, in part because the size of this thing is hard to properly convey. And the budget, to be honest, is only where the problems this bill would cause begin. We have to begin somewhere. When you're thinking about the size and cost of legislation, you got two different sides to keep in mind. How much about costs, either through new spending or tax cuts, and how much of that cost is paid for versus added to the debt?
The Inflation Reduction Act was expected to cost about $500 billion over 10 years, and it paid for all that spending and more through tax increases. The Affordable Care Act was expected to cost about a trillion dollars over ten years, all of it again paid for. Trump's twenty seventeen tax reform bill. When you added everything up. left an estimated one point five trillion dollars of tax cuts unpaid for. But the big budget bomb exists in a class by itself. Even a naive analysis, one that buys into some very obvious Republican budget tricks, finds that this bill, as it exists right now. Cuts taxes and raises spending by more than four trillion dollars over ten years. And only pays for about one point five trillion dollars of that.
So once you add an interest on all that new debt, and we're paying real high interest rates on that nowadays, the budget bomb puts more than three trillion dollars, three trillion on the national credit card over the next decade. But let's not fall for dumb budget tricks. The bill is full of tax cuts the Republicans have slapped expiration dates on. The way it's written right now, it wipes out taxes on overtime and tips and car loans, but only for four years. That'll expire in twenty twenty eight, the way Republicans have now written the bill. But we know they have no intention of allowing those tax cuts to expire. They want to run in twenty twenty eight on the fear that democrats will let them expire.
Republicans use this trick a lot. If you look back at those 2017 tax cuts from Donald Trump's first term, they use the same gimmick. And in this very bill, in this very bill, Republicans are canceling all those expiration dates. I'd use the old fool me once line, but I wasn't fooled on this last time. Not gonna pretend to be fooled on it this time. I do think it's at least a little bit funny. The Republicans want budgetary credit for using that expiring tax cut trick in the very same bill in which they're also deleting their last set of expiration dates. One thing you'll never hear me say about Donald Trump's Republican Party is that it lacks Hutzpah. According to the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget, which I think nowadays is Washington's SATAS advocacy group.
If you take seriously the permanence the Republicans are actually seeking. The big budget bomb will add about five trillion dollars to the debt over the next decade. Five trillion. That is an insane number. You remember when Trump promised to balance the budget?
I want to do what has not been done in twenty four years balance the federal budget. We're gonna balance it.
I also remember that that happened in march. So here I've been talking about what the bill does to the budget, but there's this other question too, maybe the more important one. What is it trying to accomplish? Five trillion dollars is a lot of debt. But if we were adding it and it would lead us to inventing commercialize nuclear fusion or perfect a drug that would double our healthy lifespans, then fine, it's worth it.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the "Big Budget Bomb" and why is it considered the most dangerous domestic bill?
0:32–8:55
2
How much new debt does the bill add and what are the projected fiscal impacts?
8:55–16:44
3
Which tax cuts and spending cuts are included, and who benefits most from them?
16:44–24:56
4
How will the cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and ACA subsidies affect low‑income Americans?
24:56–32:29
5
What are the risks of combining these budget cuts with Trump’s tariffs and a potential recession?
32:29–40:34
6
How do the bill’s changes to climate‑related tax credits impact clean‑energy investment?
40:34–48:29
7
What political tensions within the Republican Party influence the bill’s provisions?
48:29–57:20
8
What are the long‑term consequences for future generations and the overall economy?
57:20–1:05:14