How Is The Economy Really Doing?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the find out podcast. You've got Tim, Rich and Zach today. And we're going to take a little bit of a break talking about, you know, ice going into all of our communities and, you know, shooting people and everything. But we're going to talk about something.
They're done. Right. Are they done now?
That's all over.
I heard they were done.
Well, we're going to move. We're going to move to the state of the economy because we've actually got. one of the top economists in the United States. We have Justin Wolfers with us, who is an Australian economist and public policy scholar, and he is a professor of economics and public policy at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. Justin, thanks for joining us today. Thanks. Good to be here.
I'm also an American by the way.
Oh, you are. Oh, I'm sorry. I was, I was reading your Wikipedia page, so I'm going to have to, I'm going to have to. Great research being done on our side. Oh God. Yeah. We, we go real deep here. I was reading the first paragraph off, but anyway, so, so Justin, so, uh, Tell us, just generally speaking, I saw you gave a grade for the U.S. economy recently, and I think it was a B minus. So we are hearing everything from the economy is amazing. It's great. It's never been better to we are basically on the precipice of a recession. In your opinion, generally at the 10,000 foot level, where are we economically? Like what's working and what's not?
Let me start. You just said I've heard this enormous range of commentary. I don't think that's true, actually. You've heard the president say that we're off the charts. Great. When lying liars lie, I tend to think, you know, I'm just going to like pretend he never spoke because when you don't speak truth, you don't deserve a seat at my table. Yep. So what we have is a range from people who really believe it's quite healthy to people who believe we're on the cusp of a recession. All of those things might be true. let me give you a few ways of thinking about this. So first of all, the economy at the beginning of 2025, beginning of the Trump term, was in pretty good shape. To be clear, this is not a partisan remark, the economy in 2019 on the eve of the pandemic, so during the first Trump term, was in pretty good shape.
How does Justin Wolfers evaluate the current state of the U.S. economy?
So in each case, you know, things can go okay. Unemployment was low. Inflation was a bit high and we might want it, but was edging back down to where the Fed wanted it. So that's what the president inherited. And the good thing about economies is they move slowly. Economic news, like the talking heads on CNBC and so on, don't. But actual economies move slowly. And so you heard a lot of doom and gloom, but actually the economy kept on keeping on. Now, when I say it kept on keeping on, we didn't enter recession. Things didn't turn south. The world is still here. But it's also been a year in which the unemployment rate has continued to rise. You know, what do we want? We want to get the unemployment rate as low as we can get it.
And then we just want it steady. So anytime it's rising, we must be doing worse than what we can do. So that says we're not producing as much stuff. We're not employing as many people as we might otherwise. That's one part of the economy. I think it's the most important. Jobs are a big part of how we define ourselves. They have an important social meaning. They're how we look after ourselves and our families. Being unemployed sucks. And when there's not enough jobs, it's not just a question of those who lose their jobs. People stay in their jobs, but they can't find new opportunities. They can't get pay rises and so on. So slowly rising unemployment is worse than it ought to be. The word slowly there gives you some wiggle room.
Inflation hasn't come down as quickly as we might have hoped. And folks, I'm sure, have noticed prices continuing to rise. The president relentlessly lies about this. He lies that he's gotten prices down. It's an absurd lie because unlike him, the rest of us go to the store.
Right.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:20–2:35
2
How does Justin Wolfers evaluate the current state of the U.S. economy?
2:35–11:55
3
What factors contribute to rising unemployment in the economy?
11:55–15:04
4
How does inflation affect everyday Americans?
15:04–27:41
5
What role do tariffs play in the current economic landscape?
27:41–35:01
6
How do economic policies impact the average American's life?
35:01–51:08
7
What are the dangers of high national debt?
51:08–1:01:20