EXPLAINER: Why Russia Is Burning Through 35,000 Soldiers A Month
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When something significant happens in British politics, stories are always unfolding behind closed doors. The State of It podcast from The Times and the Sunday Times takes you inside the room where it happens. I'm Stephen Swinford, the political editor of the Times, and with me are Patrick Maguire, Lara Spirit, and Ben Riley Smith. We will bring you scoops and analysis about what is really going on in Westminster. Listen to The State of It twice a week, wherever you're going to be. You get your podcasts.
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in St. Petersburg. It's Putin's home turf and at the heart of Mother Russia. Calm is shattered though by Ukrainian drone strikes. They hit an oil terminal and a ship in Dry Dock. It's a shock and an embarrassment for a government that promised victory in days in a war now in its fifth year. So has the tide finally turned? Is Vladimir Putin staring defeat in the face? This war has always been a battle of production. During its first year, it was about who could manufacture the most artillery shells, as millions of them were fired at the front. But more recently, the key quantum has been drone building. These pilotless planes that hit St. Petersburg have a range of 1,600 kilometres. They're relatively slow flying and they don't have big warheads.
But the FP5 or Flamingo, which has also been in action recently, has a 3,000 kilometer range, is jet-powered, and packs more than a ton of high explosive. And the rate of these deep strikes is increasing from 650 in 2025. to a projected eight hundred this year. The increase in production of these weapons is even more dramatic with the smaller ones, the first-person View or FPV drones used on front lines that rarely fly more than 30 kilometres. Last year Ukraine made five million FPVs. This year it'll be higher. Similar numbers to Russia, which is aiming to produce seven million of the drones.
Ukraine now has an advantage over Russia on the front lines. It's no longer as important that they are outnumbered five to one by the Russians. Right now, the Ukrainians are inflicting over ninety percent of the casualties on the Russians with unmanned systems.
Ukraine isn't just keeping pace production-wise. Since February, when the Starlink satellite system introduced new methods to stop Russia piggybacking on their system, Ukraine has had the exclusive use of it, which means an unjammable method of guidance and more accurate strikes, particularly at long range. We've heard great claims before, of course, for the Ukrainian drone industry. But the key thing now is that they've weathered the drastic reduction of direct American military assistance, and the work of the past couple of years in boosting the homemade production of long-range strike drones is bearing fruit. And even if Ukraine has hit many a Russian oil terminal before, the effects of its FPVs on or near the front line are now bringing new claims about the number of casualties being inflicted on the Russian army.
During the past year, the Ukrainian military has worked to a formula that Russia can recruit between 30 and 35,000 troops each month. The aim of Ukrainian operations has therefore been to cause more than that number of casualties. And in this context, by casualties, we mean killed or permanently taken off the battlefield. In recent months, the Ukrainians say they have been achieving or exceeding this number, 35,000, and that their objective now is to put 50,000 Russians out of action each month.
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