Crimea under pressure: Will Putin lash out?
episodePreviously titled “Putin under pressure: Will he lash out?” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 4, 2026
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Why is Crimea considered Putin’s “crown jewel” and how is it being pressured?
This episode of The General and the Journalist is brought to you by Team Orion. At a time where the world is increasingly uncertain, defence needs more than traditional logistics to face those challenges. It takes trusted data, rapid decision-making and operational resilience. That's where Team Orion comes in, strengthening defence readiness through integration. Combining the sovereign expertise of KBR, Unipart and IBM, Team Orion delivers the decision-making power and support systems to sustain forces when the stakes are high. Discover how Team Orion is helping shape the future of defence readiness. Follow them on LinkedIn at Team Orion Defence. Vladimir Putin's war is in trouble. Military and economic pressure are mounting on him by the day.
Russia's oil refineries are being blitzed by Ukraine's deep strikes. Now, so are its oil tankers. And Crimea, his prize trophy, is being squeezed with resupply routes cut off. If Putin is cornered, the fears are that he could lash out. So how might he do it and when? I'm Tom.
And I'm Patrick. Welcome to The General and the Journalist. We're pleased to welcome Mark Gagliotti back to the podcast. Mark is a historian, lecturer and writer and one of the best experts on modern Russia that we have. He's also a Sunday Times columnist and has his own excellent podcast called In Moscow's Shadows. Welcome back, Mark.
Great to be with you again. Mark, good to see you. The last time we spoke to you, it was in March and it was discussed Putin's paranoia. We had a wonderful discussion about why he was lining the Kremlin walls with armed guards and turning off the internet in every city he could think of. It turns out in July, he does have quite serious good reason to be paranoid. The reason being, Ukraine's been pretty busy over the last few months, hasn't it, Patrick?
He has. I mean, the thing that really caught my eye with the Ukrainians are a couple of really significant developments. So you remember that we spent quite a lot of time talking about how Ukraine has managed to achieve a functional defeat of the Black Sea Fleet without even having a navy. Well, what they're now doing is to take that example and they're effectively fighting an air campaign without a conventional air force. And what this has allowed them to do is to fight almost as NATO would, where you try to achieve air superiority and you use your air force to strike Russia throughout their depth. I think we were talking about this last week. So simultaneously hitting tactical targets on the battlefield,
You know, operational level targets, what we might call air interdiction. So these are the mid-range strikes. And this is particularly pertinent when it comes to isolating Crimea. And then the ones we're reading so much about, which is the sort of strategic bombing campaign. And that's hitting targets primarily related to economic warfare and so on. And they've done all that without an air force. And what they've done is they've used unmanned systems to achieve it. So it's a remarkable turnaround from where they were just two years ago, let alone four years ago.
It really is. And the pace is picking up. It seems week by week, day by day. So let's just update listeners on just how far Ukraine has gotten, how backwards Russia is going in all this. First is a fuel crisis. Because, and these numbers are absolutely amazing, the new Eurasian Strategy Centre report that Ukraine has struck at least 25 different Russian oil refineries now. 13 of them, over half, are either partially or completely out of use. The Institute for the Study of War report that Ukraine have hit 90 different Russian oil tankers, and that's the big new development of the last week in the Sea of Azov, over just six days.
That's an incredible number. I mean, that's almost Battle of Atlantic standards.
What recent Ukrainian attacks have crippled Russia’s oil refineries and tankers?
It is, and that is apparently because there is a bottleneck at the Straits of Kerch going in and out of the Sea of Azov, going into the Black Sea. So they're just knocking them off. But it's all meant intense fuel shortages, rationing of petrol stations all across Russia.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is Crimea considered Putin’s “crown jewel” and how is it being pressured?
0:00–3:57
2
What recent Ukrainian attacks have crippled Russia’s oil refineries and tankers?
3:57–9:43
3
How does the loss of Crimea’s logistics and air bases affect Russian military capability?
9:43–15:22
4
What are the economic and political risks of a new Russian mobilisation?
15:22–20:48
5
When might Putin choose a cease‑fire versus an escalation, and why?
20:48–26:39
6
What are the possible “horizontal” escalations against NATO and Europe?
26:39–32:23
7
How could a partial mobilisation in September change the war’s outcome?
32:23–39:02
8
What could happen politically in Russia if mobilisation fails and protests grow?
39:02–42:39