Trump Gets SURPRISING BAD NEWS from Latest Polls
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What is the overall polling picture for Trump and Harris in the current race?
I'm joined by Tom Bonnier of Target Smart, Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles. We got to break down all of the various polling that's out there. There's a deluge of information, a lot of disinformation out there. What we always want to strive to do with the Midas Touch Network is really get the best data and understand the best data that we. Tend to make sense of all of the different polling, early voting returns, vote by mail returns. Tom, I'll start with you and the post that you made recently. I wonder what is what you wrote. I wonder what it says about the psychology of each party's relative base, that the GOP fundraising emails, and I'll go and say their posts on social media as well, are super confident, generally talking about by how.
Much they are winning. While the emails and the communications and posts from Democrats are something along the lines of Tom, we are all doomed, exclamation point, exclamation point. But I I I I want to just delve into that because that is a reality too. You know, you speak to a someone that you know who's MAGA, they go, We've got this in the bag. You speak to someone on the Democratic side, they go. I'm nervous. I'm nervous about this. So let's just start 30,000 foot view. Um, then we'll get into the specific states, the various pollings, the early vote return. But give us your 30,000 view first, then we'll go to Simon.
Yeah. And and and this is something I've started calling asymmetric anxiety because it's just uh it's it's funny. And this is not, by the way, the first cycle that we've experienced as we've all lived through this before. And even if you just think over the last few cycles, it's this time of year where the MAGA enthusiasts are most confident. Um, the last few white uh cycles, they've gotten pretty quiet after election day. So uh they're having their moment. But you know, what we're actually seeing is a remarkably stable race. I think we've been a little bit spoiled by that because uh uh The polling is, you know, usually in presidential cycles, you'll see a lot more movement up and down in a much wider range.
And it's just remarkably stable now. And you know, as we've talked about, the real focus at this point, when we sort of set aside and say, look, when you're looking at the real polls, and Simon will do a much better job than I to help people understand what we should be looking at there. Um Uh it's gonna tell us that this is likely to be a very close race. And so then it's a question of turnout. And what are our best indicators of turnout? Well, it's the actions people are taking. It's the voter registration data that we've been talking about uh for weeks now, showing uh when we talk about asymmetry, uh it's been asymmetrical in favor of Democrats in the last. Several weeks since Vice President Harris became the nominee.
We see that continuing on the voter registration front, which is a good sign for turnout. And then on the early vote front, uh, look, we knew Republicans were going to vote early in bigger numbers this time around, relative to four years ago, because four years ago, uh, Donald Trump told them that voting early was fraudulent, especially. Mail voting. Meanwhile, Democrats are very COVID conscious. So we anticipated that. In fact, I wrote about that probably a month ago before any of this started, uh, saying this is what we need to watch out for. We're not seeing anything unexpected. In fact, to the extent that there are surprises in the early vote, it's generally positive numbers in some of these states.
Everything is consistent with where we thought things would be for quite some time. time now, which is a close competitive election. So yeah, that's the high level at this moment.
So I'm going to go to Simon in a second. Just to give our audience one example of that. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, 2020, it was around a plus 51 around this time for Democrats. Now it's like a plus 31 in favor of Democrats. But to your point, that is with a massive effort. I mean, quite literally, hundreds of millions of dollars.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the overall polling picture for Trump and Harris in the current race?
0:00–7:33
2
How does “asymmetric anxiety” explain the differing confidence of GOP and Democratic supporters?
7:33–12:02
3
Why are the national polls staying remarkably stable despite recent debate performances?
12:02–16:38
4
What do early‑vote and voter‑registration trends reveal about turnout expectations?
16:38–24:26
Speakers
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