Simon Rosenberg
speaker
360 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard Oct 2024
Simon Rosenberg’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Yeah, really quickly, um, and I agree with everything Tom said, is that, you know, in polling, as Tom said, the polling has actually been remarkably stable and consistent now since the debate in early September.
Um, I know that that's not what people see because they see polling averages and forecasters tipping over to Trump.
But as we discussed when we were last on, there is this massive campaign underway.
uh a red wave 2024 as I call it to shape and push the polling averages more towards the Republicans.
Um they've released more than 80 polls by 31 different organizations going back to the end of August.
And last week they made a pretty significant assault on the national polling average.
They've listed they've released 13 polls in the last eight days and it moved the national polling average on 530 A from two
And that sort of tipped all the forecasters and the and the aggregators into a plus Trump sort of view.
But when you take those polls out and you look at just the independent polls, the race hasn't changed.
We're still up by two, three, four points.
We're up in better shape in the battlegrounds than they are.
I write about this on Hopium today.
I go through it all.
In the last two weeks, the independent national polls have had Harris up by an average of 2.7 percentage points.
The red wave polls have had Trump up by a point.
It's a three to four point difference.
This is exactly the same numbers as 2022 when they launched the red wave effort.
So my view is that nationally the race has been very stable.
we are in better shape than they are, but it's really close.
Second, on the early vote, there is, you know, as Tom mentioned, just one other bit on the early vote.
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