The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Episodes
Richard Arnold: US Correspondent on the Minneapolis school shooting
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Minneapolis' Police Chief says they'll be working to make sure schools are protected following a shooting which killed two children. Eighteen pe...
Wrapping the Week with Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson: Tim's holiday, Mike's negativity, and Sam's injury
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Wilson is back from his holiday and ready to Wrap the Week alongside Kate Hawkesby and Mike Hosking. They try to get Mike to have a more pos...
Full Show Podcast: 29 August 2025
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 29th of August, we're changing the alcohol laws, making it easier to hold both on and off l...
Claire Matthews: Massey University Banking Expert on the number of green loans
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Kiwis have racked up more than a billion dollars in green loans for energy efficient items like EVs, solar panels, and heat pumps. BNZ, ASB, and...
Sam MacKinnon: Hospitality NZ Head of Advocacy on the proposed loosening of alcohol laws
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Alcohol reforms are seen as a step in the right direction by a hospo industry voice. The Government's proposing to allow businesses a right of r...
Greg Foran: Air NZ CEO on the airline's profits falling by $20 million
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Air Zealand's boss is predicting another challenging year ahead. Our national carrier has seen profits plunge. It's partly due to weak dom...
John McKinnon: NZ China Council Chair on the slowing of China's investment in New Zealand
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Several factors are behind a flat-lining in investment from China. New research by the New Zealand China Council and NZIER has found Chinese investmen...
Nick Leggett: Infrastructure NZ CEO on the plans to re-surface and rebuild areas of Transmission Gully
28 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The initial construction of Transmission Gully is being described as a 'dog’s breakfast' as the chipseal and drainage systems prove unable to cope w...
Mike's Minute: No smoking gun for the supermarkets either!
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nicola Willis was back yesterday for another "guns at dawn" with the supermarkets. She had the results of the RFI, the Request for Information. ...
Feroz Ali: NZ Fashion Week Owner on the new event in Christchurch
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
New Zealand Fashion Week is headed down south. A bespoke version of the event is headed to Christchurch this Spring, a three-year partnership br...
Georgia Lines: Kiwi Singer-songwriter on her new EP, move to Nashville
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
One of the country’s talented singer-songwriters is leaving our shores as she looks to crack the big leagues. Georgia Lines has been on the sc...
Chris Meehan: Winton Land and Ayrburn Owner on the projected visitor numbers
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Central Otago hospitality precinct Ayrburn is forecast to be the most popular attraction in the region. Winton Land owns the property near Arrow...
Full Show Podcast: 28 August 2025
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 28th of August, Nicola Willis has her solution to the supermarket problem. Mike isn't con...
Nicola Willis: Economic Growth Minister on the fast-track lane for supermarket competition
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nicola Willis says she's not bluffing with the idea of potentially breaking up the supermarket duopoly. The Economic Growth Minister has introd...
Kelvin Davidson: Cotality Chief Property Economist on the housing value-to-income ratio reaching its lowest since mid-2019
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Lower mortgage rates and income growth have helped improve housing affordability. Cotality NZ’s new report finds the national value-to-income ...
Ruth Shinoda: Education Review Office Deputy CEO on professional development for teachers
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
There’s optimism over the future of professional development training for teachers. A new report from the Education Review Office has found ha...
Chris Quin: Foodstuffs North Island CEO on the potential action from the Government to diversify the sector
27 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Calls for certainty from the supermarket sector as Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis weighs more action. She's introduced fast track conse...
Mike's Minute: The good and the bad of a 4-year term
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
I would have thought the timing could not be more awkward. If you broadly accept the current narrative that this Government is working awfully h...
Richard Arnold: US Correspondent on Trump escalating his threats to deploy the National Guard
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Donald Trump is escalating his threat to deploy the National Guard in Democrat-run cities. He’s doing it under the guise of cracking down on c...
Pollies: Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen on 4 year terms, gang legislation, burner phones in international relations
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen are back with Mike Hosking to discuss the biggest political stories of the week so far. Should New Zealand swap...
Full Show Podcast: 27 August 2025
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 27th of August, we have good economic news: a new Westpac report says our growth is set ...
Dr Stephen Grice: CB Port Limited Spokesperson on the pitch for the North South Express ferry link
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A new pitch has been made for a two-hour ferry link between the North and South Islands. The ‘North South Express’ would see a new port buil...
Kate Scott: HortNZ CEO on the roadmap to double farmgate returns by 2035
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
There’s hope the horticulture sector will see a massive boost over the next decade. A roadmap has been unveiled to double farmgate returns by ...
Steven Joyce: Former Finance Minister on the predicted economic growth for NZ
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
New Zealand's on track for stronger economic growth but it could take a while to flow through to house prices. Westpac is forecasting New Zealan...
Erica Stanford: Immigration Minister on the new Business Investor Visa
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The number of people coming in on the Government's new Business Investor Visa could be limited. It'll fast track residency for any foreig...
Geof Nightingale: Independent tax expert on the new migrant tax rules
26 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A view that new migrant tax rules will put us on par with other countries. The Government's proposing a bill to stop migrants being taxed on est...
Enda Brady: UK Correspondent on the UK's finances, debt
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Britain is facing a financial crisis, with the country potentially heading towards a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Economi...
Mike's Minute: Luxon finally told it as it is
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Has the penny dropped? There was no shortage of headlines and news coverage yesterday out of our interview with the Prime Minister on the Reserv...
Cosmo Hawke: Co-founder of Fruit Cru on their business turning ugly fruit into wine
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A new use for “ugly” fruit, with two Kiwi dads turning a hobby into a business. Fruit Cru makes use of seconds, the ugly fruit from local or...
Mark Winterbottom: Former full-time Supercars driver on his career, new memoir 'Frosty'
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Motorsport fans are getting a look inside the career of one of the more recognisable names in Supercars. After 21 years, last year saw Mark Wint...
Full Show Podcast: 26 August 2025
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 26th of August, the Reserve Bank is opening consultation on banks’ capital requirements ...
Jodi O'Donnell: TVNZ CEO on securing the FIFA World Cup broadcasting rights, creating a paid event pass for it
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
TVNZ will be charging its viewers for content for the first time after securing the rights to broadcast next year's Fifa World Cup. Viewers will...
Neil Quigley: Reserve Bank Board Chair on the review of capital requirements
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Reserve Bank says it wasn't dragged kicking and screaming to a review of capital rules. It's put out two proposals aimed at loosening capita...
Chris Whelan: Universities NZ CEO on the rising proportion of A-grades given at universities
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The tertiary sector's not losing sleep over grade inflation at universities. A New Zealand Initiative report's found the proportion of A-grades ...
Jane Wrightson: Retirement Commissioner on the number of self-employed people contributing to their KiwiSaver
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Self-employed Kiwis are prioritising their businesses rather than thinking about retirement. A report by the Retirement Commission and accountin...
Brent Falvey: Cargo Owners Council Chair on the inefficiencies in New Zealand's port systems
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Port inefficiencies could undermine New Zealand's goals to double export earnings. The Cargo Owners Council says there's been a 30% drop in pro...
Commentary Box: Jason Pine and Andrew Saville join talk the All Blacks, the NPC free-to-air deal and the Warriors
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jason Pine and Andrew Saville join Mike Hosking this morning to discuss the weekend's sports. On the table today: The All Blacks suffered a defeat at ...
Full Show Podcast: 25 August 2025
24 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Listen to the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday 25 August. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on...
Christopher Luxon: Prime Minister discusses plan to increase tourism numbers
24 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Prime Minister could follow Australia's lead in an attempt to boost overseas stays through major events. A new report shows strong demand for hote...
Mike's Minute: There's no "silver bullet" solution to bringing in more banks
24 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
"MP's struggle to identify silver bullet solutions". That was the headline Friday as Jenee Tibshraeny detailed a years worth of work by the Finance an...
Sir Graham Henry: Former All-Blacks coach on the defeat in Buenos Aires to Los Pumas
24 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Los Pumas completed a historic victory over the All-Blacks on Sunday, defeating them 29-23 to secure their first victory over the All-Blacks on home s...
John Munro: Criminal defence lawyer discusses sentencing of 20-year-old that killed a friend in a car crash
24 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Sentences could only get tougher for drivers who kill under the influence, as a 20-year-old's been sent to prison. Alexander Lucas Kerr has been...
Tusha Penny: Assistant Police Commissioner discusses negative feedback on newly recruited officers
24 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Police are acknowledging they're not perfect, as it's revealed junior officers are 'barely equipped' with the basics. A survey of training offic...
James Doolan: Hotel Council Strategic Director on new hotel investments in Auckland and Wellington
24 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Australian-owned Drifter Hotel-Hostels is planning to open new branches in Auckland and Wellington, expanding on their current foothold in Christchurc...
Mike's Minute: The teacher strike achieved nothing
22 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
As the teachers head back to school, like all the other strikes, nothing got achieved. It never does. For a strike to work you need to sca...
Mark the Week: Recalling Mallard was the move of the week
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. Alaska: 6/10 ...
Mike's Minute: We're still talking about working from home
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
One of the "never the twain shall meet" moments that came out of Covid was working from home. Here we are, five years on, and the battle has not...
Richard Dawkins: Federated Farmers Wool Chair on the efforts to drive up the value of wool
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Are we in for a wool revival? Industry leaders are meeting at a number of workshops next week, with the aim of driving up value. Stats sho...
Wrapping the Week with Kate Hawkesby and Sir John Key: Super yachts, Warriors, ChatGPT
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Back by popular demand, Sir John Key is back alongside Kate Hawkesby and Mike Hosking to Wrap the Week that was. This week the former Prime Mini...
Full Show Podcast: 22 August 2025
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 22nd of August, the Air Force is getting planes and helicopters from the US, so we’re fin...
Scott Robertson: All Blacks Coach on the squad named for the second Argentina clash
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
One change to the All Blacks run-on side for Sunday morning's Rugby Championship rematch against Argentina in Buenos Aires. Simon Parker debuts ...
Kelvin Davidson: Cotality NZ Chief Property Economist on first home buyers entering the property market
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Investors may sit back and wait for further cuts to the Official Cash Rate as first home buyers surge into the housing market. The Cotality Mont...
Darryn Webb: Air Force Chief on the $2.7 billion investment in the defence forces
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A $2.7 billion defence spend could help to boost recruitment to the forces. The Government's investing in new aircrafts, including two new Airbu...
Bill Hodge: Retired Law Professor on the call to overhaul the Clean Slate Act
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A call for an overhaul of the Clean Slate Act. Last week tutor Timothy Fisher was sentenced to four years and five months in prison for sexual ...
Richard Chambers: Police Commissioner on the proposed Interpol base in the Pacific
21 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Police Commissioner is supporting an Interpol base in the Pacific, and says many pacific nations are also on board. Interpol has pitched th...
Mike's Minute: We were more right than the Reserve Bank
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
There are two key things for me that came out of the Reserve Bank commentary. The press conference post the announcement should be a must watch ...
Adrienne Begbie: Prospa Managing Director on the impact of the latest OCR cut
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Will the latest cut to the Official Cash Rate provide some much-needed stimulus to the business sector? The central bank's cut the OCR 25 basis ...
Nick Bryant: Former US Correspondent on the latest developments between Trump, Putin, Zelenskyy
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The White House is claiming plans are well underway for a meeting between Russia's President Vladimir Putin's and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelens...
Full Show Podcast: 21 August 2025
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 21st of August, New Zealand’s intelligence service warns that terrorist attacks are a r...
Jason Te Brake: Zespri CEO on the strong returns expected this kiwifruit season
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Positive news for kiwifruit growers with expectations of strong returns this season. Zespri's forecasting record returns on a per-hectare basis...
Robin Whyman: Dental Policy Director on the Dental Roadmap to address poor oral health
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A plan's been laid out for potential dental reforms to address New Zealanders’ poor oral health. New Zealand Dental Association data shows one...
Christian Hawkesby: Reserve Bank Governor on the OCR cut, inflation
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Reserve Bank Governor is defending not going harder with cuts to the Official Cash Rate. The cash rate has been cut 25 basis points to 3%.&n...
Andrew Hampton: SIS Director-General on threats to New Zealand, the public's role in identifying
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
New Zealand's Security Intelligence Service is reiterating the public's role in the fight against threats. The organisation is keeping our threa...
Mike's Minute: Why don't parents cop flak for our kid's education?
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Can I ask a question about parents? I watched Erica Stanford do a press conference yesterday at a school in Wellington while launching the writi...
Matt Redwood: Coffee on Queen co-owner on the Tasman District Council threatening fines for flags on the footpath
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
There’s trouble brewing in Nelson over a council bylaw banning advertising flags outside shops. The bylaw was adopted in November of 2024, li...
Pollies: Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen on the Covid Inquiry, Trevor Mallard
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Today on Politics Wednesday, the Covid Inquiry is still at the top of mind for many. Chris Hipkins, Dame Jacinda Ardern, Grant Robertson, and Ay...
Full Show Podcast: 20 August 2025
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 20th of August, the Reserve Bank has a call to make today – they're expected to cut th...
Todd McClay: Trade Minister on his meetings in Saudi Arabia, the US regarding trade and tariffs
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Trade Minister says his trip to the US is all about ensuring our trade tariffs don't shift around too much. Todd McClay says the 15% duty o...
Nick Sautner: Eden Park CEO on the Blues reportedly looking to play two Super Rugby games at Mt Smart Stadium
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Blues are poised to head across town to Mt Smart for two Super Rugby games next year. They're reportedly still planning to play most of thei...
Carl Taylor: Combined Building Supplies Co-Op CEO on the signs of recovery in the construction sector
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
There are tentative signs of recovery, as a troubled construction sector looks to turn the corner. A new report shows the sector generated $94 b...
Erica Stanford: Education Minister on poor writing achievement in schools, Writing Action Plan
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A lack of surprise from the Education Minister over poor writing achievement in schools. New data shows only a quarter of Year 8 students achiev...
Jerrod Kerr: Kiwibank Chief Economist seeks further OCR cuts ahead of today's announcement
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A senior economist says he'd like to see a series of OCR cuts. The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2pm today. Kiwibank Chief E...
Rod Liddle: UK Correspondent on Kier Starmer's role in the White House meetings regarding Ukraine
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A trilateral meeting between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and the United States is looking likely. US President Donald Trump's been meeting w...
Mike's Minute: The pay equity court case is a "show trial"
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
If Grant Robertson thinks the Covid inquiry is a "show trial", then what is about to unfold at the High Court as of the end of this month can't be far...
Ryan Wood: Kiwi Supercars driver on his year so far, success in racing
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
It’s been an incredible rise for Kiwi Supercars driver Ryan Wood. Racing for Walkinshaw Andretti United last year, he helped the team to 3rd i...
Karin Kos: Apiculture NZ CEO on the challenging times for the global honey sector
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Times are challenging for the global honey sector. Oversupply, inflated prices, and global volatility continue to drive sector woes. Api...
Full Show Podcast: 19 August 2025
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 19th of August, eyes are on the White House as Zelenskyy and EU leaders meet for peace tal...
Mike Fuge: Contact Energy CEO on the company's full-year net profit
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
One of the country’s major electricity companies is defending their increased profits amid rising energy prices. Contact Energy’s full year...
Vaughan Mabee: Amisfield Executive Chef on being crowned Restaurant of the Year
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The chef at the country's best restaurant says they're always improving to stay top of the game. From more than 300 contestants, Queenstown's f...
Lauren Tomasi: Channel 9 US Correspondent on the meeting with Trump, Zelenskyy, European leaders
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Donald Trump's focussing on a peace deal rather than a ceasefire as talks with Ukraine's President get underway. Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived at ...
Chris Penk: Building and Construction Minister on the shake up of building consents and liability
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Taking some of the pressure off councils is expected to make them more willing to consent buildings. The Government will shift liability for bu...
Mark Troughear: Freightways CEO on the rise in net profits for the year
18 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Financial results are coming in thick and fast. a2 Milk is reporting a 21% rise in profit alongside announcing it has bought the Yashili p...
Full Show Podcast: 18 August 2025
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 18th of August, we've got conflicting reports on the cost of food at the supermarket - ...
Commentary Box: Jason Pine and Andrew Saville join Mike Hosking to discuss the weekend's sports
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jason Pine and Andrew Saville join Mike Hosking this morning to discuss the weekend's sports. On the table today: The Warriors defeated the dolphins 1...
Mike's Minute: How did RNZ not know about this already?
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
You may have read a report commissioned by Radio NZ to look into why their operation has become such a dumpster fire. It said a bunch of stuff that wa...
Christopher Luxon: Prime Minister discusses Auckland Mayor's calls for bed night levy
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Prime Minister says Auckland won't be getting a bed tax this parliamentary term, despite a renewed call from the city's mayor. Last we...
John Hart: Former All Blacks coach on the dominant victory over Argentina
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The All Blacks have defeated Argentina in the Rugby Championship. They dispatched a 24-41 victory over Los Pumas, who hosted the All Blacks at E...
Sharon Zollner: ANZ Chief Economist discusses the government's rapid increase in national debt
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The government's debt has shot up as our collective total gets closer to one trillion dollars. The country's overall debt rose to $870billion do...
Chris Quin: Foodstuffs North Island Managing Director says consumers should look for 'better value' as grocery prises soar
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The latest Stats NZ figures says food prices in our 15 main cities have increased five-percent in the past year -- with grocery prices rising much fas...
Thomas Scrimgeour: New Zealand could secure a place in the global AI economy with a sustainable data centre
17 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
New Zealand could secure a place in the global AI economy with a sustainable data centre Research by the Maxim Institute has looked at leveraging the ...
Mike's Minute: Stop putting the bill on the taxpayer
15 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
It never takes long to find the bank of the taxpayer. The Green Building Council has lined the Government up for Lord knows how many millions so...
Mark the Week: Visas are one of the bright spots of the week
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. Visas: 7/10 ...
Mike's Minute: Central Govt's differing approach to local govt
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The battle of duelling responsibilities is unfolding before our eyes and I can't work out whether it will all end in tears. On one hand you've g...
Richie Barnett: Former Kiwis Captain previews the Warriors v Dragons clash
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Warriors’ season hinges on tonight's match against the Dragons, crucial for playoff chances. Injuries and missed opportunities have plague...
Wrapping the Week with Kate Hawkesby and Sir John Key: Clothes, wine drinking, pickleball
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
It’s Friday once more, but Mike Hosking’s panel for Wrapping the Week looks a little different. Tim Wilson is off on holiday, so a special g...
Will Jordan: All Blacks fullback previews the Rugby Championship opener against Argentina
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The All Blacks have named a predictable side for their Rugby Championship opener against Argentina in Cordoba. Captain Scott Barrett is returnin...
Full Show Podcast: 15 August 2025
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 15th of August, all eyes will be on Trump and Putin in Alaska tomorrow – what will likely...
Michael Quirke: Evolution Healthcare's Hospitals CEO on the increased use of robotic surgeries
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Robotic surgeries are taking off, bringing positive outcomes for the health sector. Evolution Healthcare says it's more than doubled the number ...
Kate Acland: Beef + Lamb Chair on the declining sheep numbers, impact of carbon forestry
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
There’s little sign of recovery soon for the country's sheep numbers as they continue to drop. Beef + Lamb NZ shows breeding ewe numbers are d...
Matthew Schmidt: New Haven University International Affairs Expert on the meeting between Trump and Putin
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Donald Trump estimates his high-stakes diplomatic talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin have a 25% chance of failure. The two presidents will meet ...