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Chapter 1: What is discussed at the start of this section?
Oh, yeah. It's a Donnie Football Friday. And it ain't your average Donnie Football Friday. Because we have playoff football. We have a monstrous weekend and a monstrous weekday. Namely, next Monday, Texan Steelers. And we also have a big college game tonight. A great game. If that was any indication, Donnie, of the kind of football weekend we're in for, Ole Miss-Miami was fabulous.
But we start... with Steelers-Texans. And yes, I know, we're going to have a whole day on Monday also to talk about this game. But how many home playoff games do you get in a lifetime? There's only been 14 of them at Accresure Stadium, the artist formerly known as Heinz Field.
Chapter 2: What key playoff games are highlighted?
The Steelers are 8-6 in those games. And Donnie, I'm going to reiterate... What I've been feeling all week long, I think the Steelers are going to win this game. Our friend Adam Crowley, a very close friend, I might add. We love him, don't we, Donnie? We do. He had a good topic today. He said if you're a Mike Tomlin detractor, you know, whatever phrase you want to use there.
And you think the Steelers are going to win. He didn't say this to me. He put it out to his audience. How do you square those two things? And my answer is two words. Aaron Rodgers. They have a red hot quarterback, a pretty good offensive line that we don't talk about enough.
DK Metcalf back in the fold, two good running backs, and a couple other little weapons sprinkled in there, including a man that we'd all forgotten about. His name is Pat Friermuth. Sometimes Pat Friermuth, depending on how you want to pronounce that. It actually is Muth, but he really doesn't care. It's also easier for everybody to just say Muth. Yeah.
And then they have a very mediocre offensive line in Houston. And the Steelers, while they've been up and down defensively, it's been more up than down lately. I'll tell you that much. They're going to win the game. That's where I'm starting today. And the score is going to be 15 to 10. And if they get a late defensive touchdown, it's going to be 22 to 10.
That's where I'm starting today on Adani Football Friday. Where are you starting, Donnie Football? I'm right around that same score. I keep questioning who I'm going to have win the football game, Joe, because I do feel like we are underrating the Texans' defense just a little bit. That is a truly elite unit that they have.
So I don't want that to go understated all week, and then we come out Monday night and everybody is stunned by how good that defense is. I feel like the score is going to be like 16-13. But one minute I feel like the Texans will be the team winning. The next minute I think the Steelers can be the team winning.
Because even though this defense is scary, and I think it's a Super Bowl caliber defense. I think it is one that if Houston can get by this round, they could actually make a run. Because the defense is that good. I was telling somebody last night that...
and I think Chris has maybe made this point throughout the week and the afternoon, the Texans in 2025, they're pretty similar to what the 2008 Steelers were. An elite defense, great players and playmakers at all three levels. They can get after the quarterback like no other. Two guys with 12-plus sacks coming off the edge. The offense has a shoddy offensive line. Not too strong of a run game.
A quarterback that's good, but not putting up overwhelmingly great numbers. I mean, go back to what Ben's stat line was in 2008. It was nothing special. But they made plays when they had to. And the defense carried the load all the way through the Super Bowl. That's, I think, a pretty fair comparison to what this Texans team is.
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Chapter 3: What are the predictions for the Steelers-Texans game?
I wish he had. Do you guys want to guess at the bill? Did anybody see it? Did you sneak a photo of it? I did not see it. No, I had tried to look, but you did a good job of hiding it. You want to go over under here? You want to go over under? I estimated in my mind last night what I think. With the tip included? No. Okay. Yes, with the tip included. With the tip included. Yes.
No, let's go no tip. No tip? No tip. Yeah, no tip. A steak dinner at a nice local steakhouse for Donnie, myself, intern Dom, and City Limits last night. Because intern Dom answered a question, you know, periodically here I give a trivia question and I say, if you get it right, I'll take you to a steak dinner.
His question was who finished third in the 2014 MVP voting or some ridiculous thing like that. And he somehow pulled DeMarco Murray.
which was a miracle um okay so over under i mean give me the number as close as you can get donnie i'll go 415 i'm going 325 377 right in the middle who wins there donnie went over prices right you right he wins come on down limits you win on the prices right time for another steak dinner this time it's on donnie And then I left the tip.
And if you know anything about the history of the fan, you never want to ask somebody how they tipped their server. Remember when Vinny asked Ron that? No, I don't know that. Ron got very mad. Almost resulted in a fist fight when Vinny said, would you normally leave on a bill? And Ron said, that's none of your business. How dare you ask? Were you listening when that happened?
Let me see if you heard the tape. You told the story. Yeah. It was incredible. Well, whoever it was on the air with us early this week, had the opinion that the Steelers aren't going to be able to run their little pop gun offense, and I don't necessarily mean that insultingly in this situation, against the Texans. Donnie, I differ on that.
I actually think this is a pretty good offense to run against the Texans. You got to take a shot once in a while. I get that. But from what I've seen, and Houston's defense is great. I watch them do to Josh Allen what I've seen almost nobody do to him in that night game earlier this season. They're phenomenal. They are.
But the Bills don't have these kinds of weapons in terms of having two guys coming out of the backfield, in terms of having a DK Metcalf. Um, they do have James Cook running the ball, but they don't have what I think is going to work against this defense a little bit, at least for ball control to running backs coming out of the backfield who can make you miss. And that can be your running game.
To me, I think Warren and Gainwell are at the tops of their games, plus you have Metcalf back, and it's going to be a motivated, playoff-proven Metcalf. Then you have Friermuth's been reintroduced into this offense, and I think this little misdirection here, screen pass there, throw to Jonu Smith here, Friermuth down the seam here, Metcalf, I think that's going to work to the extent
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Chapter 4: How do injuries impact the Steelers' playoff chances?
That's a very uncomfortable place to be. You want to pack your bags, get on a plane and come to Pittsburgh or some such place with no running game for a playoff game. You might be in trouble. That's an uncomfortable place to be. I don't expect their offense to do much of anything, to be honest with you. And Joey Porter's waiting, too, for Collins.
And he's become a really, really good player to the point where people aren't even testing him. The point about their offense is why I feel like the Steelers have a coin flip-like chance in the game.
And I know that I've been harping about the Houston defense and why that shouldn't be a unit that we forget about going into Monday because it's probably one of the best overall units heading into the postseason across the board. But they don't have an offense and they don't have a quarterback, at least yet, because C.J. Stroud hasn't taken that next step.
They don't have an offense that can just run away from you on the scoreboard. I think it is fair to point out, even as frustrating as this drought has become for Pittsburgh, going on nine years if they don't get it done on Monday, The last three playoff losses for them have come against MVP quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes in Ben's final season, Josh Allen when it was Mason Rudolph up in Buffalo, and then last year it was Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in Baltimore. So it's not as if they're playing some stiff at QB, and I'm not saying that C.J. Stroud is that, but he's not in that upper echelon. So they're able to keep themselves in this game
because that other offense isn't going to light up the scoreboard. I don't expect this to be a game that we've seen a lot over this nine-year period. It sounds like you're talking yourself into the Steelers, Donnie. By the end of this show, you're going to have the Steelers winning the game. That's why I told you. I'm truly flip-flopping on this game a ton. I feel good about a score.
I feel good about 16-13. I don't know quite yet who I want to staple onto that 16. Because I don't think this is a game like the ones that we've seen the last handful of playoff appearances where by the time the first 15 minutes is over, the game is pretty much over. The Steelers are down three touchdowns. They're down four touchdowns.
I don't see how that's going to happen because of what Houston lacks on offense. See, when I look at Houston, in this nine-game winning streak on the road, Well, it's a nine-game winning streak when I look at the road games. One was against Indy without Daniel Jones. One was against the Broken Chiefs. It was still impressive because they went into that environment and won.
And Kansas City was still hanging on at that point. And the other was at the Chargers, which is actually a nice win. But they only scored 20 points in those final two games. In fact, they only scored 20 points even in all three. I think the first team to like 17 might win this game. Certainly the first team to 20.
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Chapter 5: What are the betting insights for the Steelers vs. Texans game?
Great. You guys will lose. It'll be awesome.
But I'm far more intrigued by your seemingly adamant on the Steelers. Please tell us more.
Yeah, it's just I don't trust Houston. I don't trust the Texans offense. And I do like Houston's defense a lot. And look, like if the Steelers were and I think even the biggest Steelers fan would have to think what I'm saying is fair, right? If the Steelers were a three point favorite in the game, I would never lay Pittsburgh minus three. I think this is probably going to be a close game.
But given that the Texans are a three-point road favorite, like the intimation here is that the Texans are like five or five and a half points better than Pittsburgh on a neutral. And there's no way that can be the case with Houston's offense being what it is. And DK Metcalf's going to be back in this game also.
And him obviously being out those two weeks was massive, even though Baltimore's defense completely crumbled without Kyle Hamilton last Sunday night.
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Chapter 6: How do the Chargers' injuries impact their playoff performance?
So all of those factors... I mean, look, the Texans can win by 20. I don't have to be right. Houston can win 17-0. The Steelers could get shut out, not score in the game. I think, and I'm being sincere here, the bet does not have to win. I think that is one of the two easiest clicks to make this weekend.
If you're betting the wild card round, is Steelers plus three or better at home against Houston on Monday night?
What's the other one?
Chargers plus three and a half on Sunday night at the Patriots.
Joe, you like that one. I love that one. Can you get into that one a little bit more, Nick? I mean, I'm cool with going all around the board. I mean, wild card weekend has to be one of the favorites of any football fan.
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Chapter 7: What predictions are made for the Packers vs. Bears matchup?
Yeah, it's, it's tremendous. Like, listen, just playoff football, college NFL is all great. So I don't know that the Chargers purposefully lost last week to Denver in order to get the seven seed. Like obviously like Justin Herbert's hand is broken and they wanted to rest a bunch of their key players that factored into it.
But if you're the Chargers, right, and it doesn't mean that it's going to work, but you know that the weakness of your team is the offensive line. And it's not even their fault. It's like when we talk about the Niners defense being bad, like they lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, right? How do you expect to be good when you lose two future Hall of Famers, right?
The Chargers offense lost two legitimate all-pro offensive tackles. Joe Walt and Rashawn Slater are both out for the season. They can't protect Justin Herbert. Herbert gets crushed every single game.
So if the Chargers had to play the Texans, if the Chargers had to play the Jaguars, if the Chargers had to play the Steelers, you wouldn't really feel good about those matchups because those teams can pressure the opposing quarterback. I've got serious questions about the Patriots' ability to do that. I don't like the Patriots' defense.
Chapter 8: What are the final thoughts on the playoff predictions?
Now, the Patriots have Drake May, and he's spectacular. But the Chargers' defense is great. Now, you don't hear Jesse Minter, who's the Chargers' defensive coordinator, being bandied about for being a head coach in the NFL because he's some curtain-jerking jabroni loser. He's a really good defensive coordinator. He might get a job. He might be a head coach.
So when you take all those factors into account, I do like the Chargers in the game. Now, I'll throw this out there. Because Herbert's banged up, There is a scenario where the Patriots win this game by 10 or more, right? I like the Chargers, but I'm just saying. So I would offer one avenue for people if you want to bet this game. If you like New England, bet New England at an alternate spread.
And you can do this at my show sponsor, BetMGM, other sports books as well. Patriots minus nine and a half and get a nice plus money price. Where I think if the Patriots win, they could win by a lot. I also think the Chargers can win this game outright, and I wouldn't be shocked at all. So I would lean into extreme outcomes here.
I like the Chargers plus the points, and I think the Chargers can win on Sunday night.
Nick, how about the other team from L.A.? They will kick off wild card weekend in Carolina, the pesky playoff Panthers. But the team that's at home is below 500. They're a 10.5 point dog based on what I'm looking at. Should there be any concern of an upset in this game or at least one too close for what that spread looks like?
Yeah, so we'll get a lot of highlights, I'm sure, tomorrow before the game of the Seahawks-Saints game in 2011, which is the Beastquake game. I bet New Orleans in that game, just like, not a great bet. I don't anticipate this game playing out that way. And if we could hop in the time machine briefly, not to go too far back in time, but on November 30th, Last year, as in like five weeks ago.
These two teams played in Carolina. The Panthers won 31-28. So the Panthers beat the Rams like five weeks ago. They played in Carolina. The Panthers won. In that game, the Panthers won the turnover margin 3-0. And that's not to insinuate they got lucky, like Matthew Stafford threw some picks, like they had to pick six in the game, right? It happens.
Carolina also went 7-15 on third down, which for the mathematically not inclined, almost 50%, pretty good. And 3-3 on fourth down. So it's a game where, not figuratively, like literally, everything went right for the Panthers. They won by three. The Rams are way better than the Panthers. This is not like a film at 11 take by me. Obviously, they're a 10 and a half point road favorite.
So Carolina can win, like it can happen. Crazier things have happened in sports. It would require like the same confluence of events to occur. Rams turned it over three or four times. Panthers run really hot on third and fourth down. I think it's very unlikely. Do I want to lay the points with the Rams? Not at 10 and a half. So how do I want to bet the game?
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