Wall Street's Top AI Bull Reveals the Real Bottleneck (It's Not Chips) | Dan Ives
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The reality is like Anthropic and OpenAI, they're playing a whole different game. No one will compare from a model perspective to where they are, especially when you think on the open source side. I think the investors, maybe industry, everyone keeps waiting for some crack in the armor. The reality is, is that
What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a very special treat. We have Dan Ives, the legend himself, here in the studio. He is now the partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives. It's a brand new merchant bank that he's building. And he spills the tea on every single thing that you care about in the AI trade. We talk about the Chinese open source models, what's going on with the anthropics revenue slowing down. Where are the big bottlenecks? What does he think about these companies that have seen their stock appreciate so much? How is he thinking about politics and all the regulations? the data center moratorium in New York City, and so much more. All of that covered in this conversation with Dan Ives.
All right, Dan, the AI bears have all kinds of new things that they're worried about. Let's start with the Chinese open-weight, open-source models. Now, all of a sudden, everyone thinks that they're going to take out the big model labs. What's your take?
Look, it's a mini deep-seek moment in terms of the fears. But, I mean, you've talked about this. The reality is, like, Anthropic and OpenAI, they're playing a whole different game. No one will compare from a model perspective to where they are, especially when you think on the open-source side. I think the investors, maybe industry, everyone keeps waiting for some crack in the armor. The reality is, is that the models will get cheaper over time. And there's going to be... 5, 10x more models over the next few years. The value will be in the data and the moat. And that continues to ultimately be. I think that's the game that Anthropic and OpenAI are playing. That's why they're so focused on the enterprise.
That's the right move. Models, and Karp's talked about it, will become more and more commoditized. But for the first time in 30 years, it's not even a question. The US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And I think that's just such an important point where we are.
Now, what's interesting to me is they're complaining that there's been this like distillation attack and that the Chinese models are essentially drifting or drafting off of, you know, these big American companies. But there's a lot of people in America like, wait a minute, I think Anthropic just signed a $1.5 billion settlement with, you know, 500,000 authors for taking the books. There's a lot of people complaining about, didn't you kind of just like do a distillation attack off of the IP to be able to train the model originally?
Yeah, people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, right? And I think just the reality is the models are built off content. I think when it comes from a model perspective, what China's doing, it's smart. Because, look, they also have, like, one hand tie behind their back. They don't have NVIDIA chips.
Allegedly.
But even if you do, you have a, call it a third-rate Nvidia chip. I mean, you have Huawei, you have some, you know, obviously some competition there. But the models need to get smarter and smarter. And I think what you've seen with the Gemini delay, look, Gemini's come, you know, they've fallen back a bit. But I think that's why it speaks to the pressure, CapEx, raising capital. This arms race, it is not slowing down its third inning.
How do Chinese open-weight open-source models compare to US closed models like Anthropic and OpenAI?
What I also find pretty interesting about this entire competition is that we basically have American closed source models, and then we have Chinese open source, open weight type models. I don't hear a lot of conversation about American open source, but I know that Jensen seems pretty all in on American open source being a big option.
Well, I think the issue, if you go back to what Zuckerberg and Mehta with Llama, I mean, Llama called that like a shot at that from like an open source perspective.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–3:12
2
How do Chinese open-weight open-source models compare to US closed models like Anthropic and OpenAI?
3:12–5:55
3
Why will falling model costs and a pricing war accelerate AI adoption?
5:55–29:41
4
Could cultural or political biases be baked into Chinese open-source models and affect finance use cases?
29:41–38:55
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from The Pomp Podcast
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