June 30th, 2026: Could Putin Actually Be Overthrown?
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What are the foundations of Putin's grip on power?
Lotossa on nyt jaossa ennätyspotti. 16,1 miljoonaa euroa. Peliaikaa lauantaihin kello 21.45 asti. Rahapelaamisen ikäraja on 18 vuotta. Apua pelaamisen hallintaan pelaamaltilla.fi. Veikkaus.
It's Tuesday, the 30th of June. Look at that. We have made it to the end of yet another month. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. And what a stage it is. Now, here at the PDB, we thought we'd try something just a bit different over the next couple of days. Sort of a respite from the chaos of the Iran conflict, the grinding brutality of the Ukraine conflict, and the other important events that typically make up the news cycle. Instead of focusing on the day's headlines over the next couple of days, we're stepping back from that daily news cycle, just again for a short while, to take a closer look at some of the most important geopolitical challenges currently facing the world.
Think of it as a series of intelligence briefings, examining the major players, the underlying dynamics, and the questions that don't always fit neatly into a traditional daily news program. And for today, well, today we're starting off with a question about a key world leader that's been asked repeatedly now for more than two decades. And that question is, could Vladimir Putin ever be overthrown? It's a question that tends to resurface whenever Russia faces a crisis after military setbacks in Ukraine or after economic sanctions or following political unrest. And perhaps most notably, it was asked after Wagner Group chief Evgeny Progozhin launched his short-lived march toward Moscow back in 2023, which of course ended with Progozhin mysteriously dying in a plane explosion.
It's hard to imagine who could have orchestrated that. Each time, after each crisis, speculation follows. Is Putin finally vulnerable? Is his grip on power slipping? Could someone inside the Kremlin be preparing to move against him? But answering those questions requires us to first understand how Putin has managed to stay in power for so long. Because despite wars, sanctions, the occasional but short-lived political opposition, and internal isolation, Vladimir Putin remains one of the most durable leaders of a modern era. So today, we're going to examine the forces that keep him in power, the threats that could one day undermine his rule, and what a real effort to remove Russia's president might actually look like.
The first thing to understand is that most people ask the wrong question when they think about how dictators or strongmen fall. We tend to assume that authoritarian leaders are removed when ordinary people become angry or fed up enough. That public frustration eventually reaches a breaking point and millions take to the streets and the regime collapses under its own weight. Huzzah! Now, occasionally that does happen, but more often, well, it doesn't. In fact, history suggests that dictators rarely lose power because of the people at the bottom of the system. They lose power when they lose the support of the people at the top. And that's particularly true in Vladimir Putin's Russia. Putin doesn't need to be universally popular.
He doesn't need every Russian citizen to support him. He doesn't even need most Russians to believe everything they hear on state television, which, by the way, they don't. What he does need is the continued loyalty, or at least the continued cooperation of a relatively small group of people who sit at the center of the Russian state. And that includes the security services, the military leadership, powerful oligarchs, senior government officials, regional political bosses, the people who control the levers of power. As long as those groups remain intact, public dissatisfaction is largely manageable. And Putin understands this better than perhaps any world leader alive today. And that's because he came of age watching another seemingly permanent regime collapse, of course, the Soviet Union.
Why have predictions of Putin's downfall repeatedly failed?
When the Soviet system imploded in 1991, it wasn't because ordinary citizens suddenly discovered they were unhappy.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What are the foundations of Putin's grip on power?
0:00–4:12
2
Why have predictions of Putin's downfall repeatedly failed?
4:12–7:38
3
What did the Wagner mutiny reveal about the Kremlin's stability?
7:38–10:52
4
What would a successful challenge to Putin's rule look like?
10:52–14:25
5
How do authoritarian leaders typically lose power?
14:25–18:27
6
What role do military failures play in undermining regimes?
18:27–22:44
7
What are the potential threats to Putin's continued rule?
22:44–25:02
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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