The PDB Situation Report | September 12th, 2026: The Iran Conflict Just Entered a More Dangerous Phase & Pentagon Considers Postwar Pullback
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What is the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why does it matter?
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, we're tracking the latest escalation of the latest in the Iran conflict. Benham Ben-Taliblu from the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, he joins us to break down what it means and where things could go next. You know what? It's anybody's guess. Later in the show, on the 25th anniversary of the 9-11 attacks, can you believe that, 25 years on, We'll look at reports that the Pentagon is considering a smaller U.S. military footprint in the Middle East once the war with Iran is over. There's the caveat. We'll be joined by Steve Yates, great friend of the show of the Heritage Foundation, for more on what that could mean.
But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight. The latest route of fighting with Iran is raising new questions about just how far the Iranian regime is willing to push its attacks on American forces. We now know that Iranian missiles damaged roughly eight U.S. F-15s at an airbase in Jordan, while an A-10 Warthog, a great plane, was hit hard enough to lose a wing. No American casualties were reported in those attacks. The strike followed U.S. attacks on five Iranian oil tankers launched after Iran attempted to hit an American warship. The pace of escalation, as you might now guess, seems to be accelerating and the risks of a wider confrontation are, of course, growing with it. Let me bring in Benham Ben-Talibu.
He's a senior director of the Foundation for Defensive Democracy's Iran program. Benham, thank you very much for coming back on The Situation Report. It's very brave of you. Always a pleasure. Thank you so much. Of course, man. Well, where do we even start? Give me your assessment of where we're at right now with the Iran conflict. And I know that's a huge playing field I've just given you, but take it away and tell me what your assessment is, what
you're thinking. I just got to say the Iran conflict is playing out right now just in the shadow of the quarter century anniversary of the 9-11 attacks. And that really does focus the mind about the capabilities that America's adversaries, even if they're weak, even if they're unorganized, even if they're scattered, can still pose to us and to the homeland and to American citizens all around the world. So it really does focus the mind. Zooming in, I think the president is adopting something of a zero tolerance policy towards Iranian instability in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Actually, I see a pretty successful streak of moves by the U.S. since leaving the MOU. I see, you know, those 13 days of strikes against Iran South.
That's really blinded the regime. What the U.S. was doing on the opposite side of the strait, which was really digging around The Strait of Hormuz moving rocks around to make sure that larger ships could pass through there, slowly using the U.S. Navy to escort them. So I see actually the U.S., you know, militarily having opened the Strait and then even, you know, Admiral Cooper of CENCOM saying that there was de-mining and that's that central part of the Strait. It wasn't subject to mine. So I see the U.S. having achieved a win here. It's trying to get media markets, shippers and insurers in the private sector to feel the win. And the Islamic Republic is intent on not letting us get that economic win. And that's precisely why they're targeting the tools that have helped open the strait.
And that's the U.S. Navy. And if I had to call Donald Trump's doctrine something right now against the Iranians, you know, the targeting of their oil tankers, I call it Ronald Reagan meets Hammurabi. You know, Ronald Reagan in terms of the forceful response against the Iranians' oil assets in the Persian Gulf and Hammurabi because an eye for an eye. Except this time, according to Pete Hegstatt, Secretary of War, it's two eyes for one eye. But this regime is weak. It's still lethal, however, and it's showing with missile attacks on Jordan or, you know, ASBM attacks on U.S. Navy vessels that it is still intent on fighting.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why does it matter?
0:07–8:54
2
How does Benham Ben‑Taliblu assess the current state of the Iran war?
8:54–15:39
3
What impact are the recent Iranian missile strikes having on U.S. forces and oil markets?
15:39–22:22
4
Why is the Strait of Hormuz a strategic focal point for the United States?
22:22–29:58
5
What are the prospects for a post‑war U.S. military footprint in the Middle East?
29:58–39:20
6
How might the Pentagon’s drawdown affect regional allies and partners?
39:20–44:45
7
What are the options for dealing with Iran’s accelerated nuclear work at Pickaxe Mountain?
44:45–44:57
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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