PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 18th, 2026: Inside Rubio’s Secret Talks Over Cuba’s Future & & Ukraine Negotiations Stall
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It's Wednesday, the 18th of February. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, we're getting a revealing look at the Trump administration's quiet strategy for Cuba, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly opens back-channel discussions, not with Havana's president, but with Raul Castro's grandson. I'll have the details. Later in the show, another round of U.S.-Russia-Ukraine peace talks comes and goes with few tangible results and no clear path forward. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. Today, we're getting a new look into the Trump administration's plans, possibly for the future of Cuba, and more importantly, who they believe actually controls it.
According to a new Axios report, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been holding quiet discussions not with Cuba's sitting president, that would be Miguel Diaz-Canel, but with the grandson of the island's aging revolutionary strongman, Raul Castro. Now, as an aside, Raul Castro is now 95 years old. He served as the president of Cuba from 2008 to 2018, taking over from his older brother, the dictator Fidel Castro, who died back in 2016. The administration appears to believe that despite formal titles in Havana, the real authority still runs through the Castro family network. And if you're planning for Cuba's future, that's where you start. Or at least, that apparently is where the White House has started.
Rubio's reported counterpart is Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, known as Rolito, the grandson of Raul Castro and the grandnephew of late dictator Fidel Castro. He's also known by the nickname El Congrejo, or The Crab, reportedly due to a deformed finger. That might be slightly more information than you need. The 41-year-old grandson once served as his grandfather's bodyguard and is connected to the military-controlled business conglomerate that dominates major sectors of the Cuban economy. But unlike the revolutionary old guard, Rolito is viewed by some analysts as part of a younger generation that's less ideological and more transactional, men who grew up inside the system but understand that revolutionary orthodoxy does not keep the lights on.
These aren't being described as formal negotiations, by the way. One administration official characterized them as, quote,
What is the White House's strategy for Cuba?
Discussions about the future. The Trump administration has made it clear of its view. The regime has to go. But according to Axios, what replaces it and who remains standing at the end of all of this is, of course, still being decided. Now, this is all happening in the context of what took place in Venezuela just last month. When U.S. forces captured indicted strongman Nicolas Maduro in a predawn operation, Cuban intelligence and Cuban military officers guarding him were reportedly killed. American forces suffered no losses. That operation reportedly seriously shook the leadership in Havana. It demonstrated not only U.S. capabilities, but also the U.S. 's intention of shaping the future of Latin America.
And then came the ongoing oil squeeze. As we've reported, Venezuela stopped supplying crude to Cuba after Maduro's capture. Mexico has now pulled back shipments following tariff threats from President Trump. Washington has warned other suppliers against filling the gap. The result? Well, the result is Cuba is now running on fumes. Fuel shortages continue to cascade through daily life. The power grid is failing. Hospitals are limiting surgeries. Blackouts are spreading. Tourism is drying up. And now the garbage is piling up. And Havana trash collection has slowed dramatically because trucks don't have fuel. Streets are seeing growing sanitation problems. And at the same time, Cuban drivers are facing months-long waits just to refuel their cars.
The government has made it mandatory to use a state-run app called Ticket to secure gasoline appointments. While this sounds efficient, some drivers report thousands of names ahead of them in the queue. Okay, not that efficient.
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