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Chapter 1: How did the CIA get involved in the pilot rescue operation in Iran?
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What would it take to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities? And how realistic is a special forces raid on the ground inside Iran? Well, welcome to The Rest Is Classified. I'm Gordon Carrera. And I'm David McCloskey. And that is the subject we're looking at in these two episodes.
We're recording this, we should say, timestamp it on April the 9th in the middle, I guess, David, of what's supposed to be a two-week ceasefire in the war with Iran. Doesn't entirely look like a ceasefire. Ceasefire-ish, yeah. Ceasefire adjacent. But it does feel like it's a good moment for us to take stock of some of the big issues.
And I think there's none bigger, is there, than this issue of Iran's nuclear program and what happens to it.
The nuclear program is one of the reasons, and I kind of say that with some trepidation, for Operation Epic Fury.
One of many.
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Chapter 2: What would it take to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities?
Because I do think the war aims have been many and have moved a bit, I think we could say, throughout the conflict. But certainly the nuclear program was...
among the top reasons given by president trump when he announced the operation in his truth social post back in february you know he outlined at least four military objectives preventing iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon was was at the top of the list you know and he said as as he announced epic fury
that Iran had rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and that we just can't take it anymore. Those are direct quotes. So the Duke program is at the center, I think you could say, of this sort of evolving set of US war aims. And as we will see, this is what we really want to dive into in these episodes,
When we say Iran's nuclear program, what we're talking about is really a sprawling architecture of people, supply chains, facilities, physical assets. But at its center... is 440 kilograms, 970 pounds, of highly enriched uranium, which is enough for about 10 bombs if it's enriched a bit more. And as we'll see, it's more complicated than just taping highly enriched uranium onto a missile.
But that stockpile is really at the center of so much of the conversation around the nuke program.
Yeah, that's right, and that's what we're going to be focusing on. Iran has always, and still it looks like, is going to maintain what it says is its right to enrich uranium, but it certainly looks like it's a priority for the US to do something particularly about that stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Defence Secretary, Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, on Wednesday, so April the 8th,
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Chapter 3: How realistic is a special forces raid inside Iran?
said President Trump could order a US commando raid to get that material. That's what we're going to be looking at. And he says, we know exactly what they have, he told reporters. They will either give it to us or we'll take it out. There we go, Pistol Pete.
You should do that again with more feeling, Gordon.
I think that's a dramatic line. I need a more dramatic pause. Should I do it again? We know exactly what they have, Mr. Hegseth told reporters. They'll either give it to us- Mr. Hegseth said of the enriched material, or we'll take it out. That's pistol Pete, isn't it?
We're going to look at the kind of wider issues around whether you can stop, degrade, destroy a nuclear program like Iran, but we're going to do that partly through some historical parallels and whether they give us some clues as to how to do that. But actually, we're going to then end with this question about whether a ground operation by special forces to seize the nuclear material
is realistic or not, because we've had a lot of talk about it. Still looks like it's on the table from the American side if they don't give up that desire. So we want to look really in some detail about how that might work out. And with that in mind, I guess it's worth starting and saying that we've already seen a ground operation by US special forces.
In a sense, you've got a parallel or a guide as to what elements of a mission to seize uranium could look like, because US forces, special forces, have been on the ground in Iran, and that was to rescue this downed US pilot. And I think it's worth maybe, if we start, by looking at that, isn't it, David?
I think it is a great place to start, because as we'll see, so many of the types of operators involved, the structure of the operation... stamp this in your heads, listeners, because we'll be coming back to this when we go into the detail of what a sort of operation to go after the highly enriched geranium might look like in the next episode.
And I guess we should say, Gordon, if you're not a member of the Declassified Club, go and sign up at therestisclassified.com because you can listen to that episode right now. Don't have to wait. This episode is brought to you by HP. In intelligence work, it's rarely the obvious problem that causes failure.
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Chapter 4: What challenges did US forces face during the rescue mission?
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To see how HP helps businesses work securely and productively, visit hp.com forward slash classified. The rest is classified. Listeners also benefit from 10% off HP business technology with code T-R-I-C 10. Okay, so the rescue mission. It is last Friday. Again, we're recording this on the 9th of April. So this is Friday, April 3rd. It is early morning local time in Iran.
There is a US F-15 Strike Eagle fixed wing aircraft. Call sign Dude 44, Gordon.
I've got to interrupt you there because the cool sign Dude44, I mean, that sounds like something out of Top Gun. I mean, I'm not even sure what it makes for Top Gun. It sounds like a kind of Top Gun spoof, of which I think there was one. Hot Shots, Part Deux, I seem to remember. Hot Shots. It feels like. I mean, is that a real thing, Dude44?
Yeah, the call sign of the aircraft was Dude 44. And I guess we could say a call sign is a name given to the aircraft and then to the people in the aircraft so that they don't have to identify themselves or rank or anything like that while they're speaking to each other. Which maybe is important in this case, the rank. Which might be important in this case, exactly.
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Chapter 5: What technology did the CIA use to locate the downed pilot?
Yeah. So Dude 44, again, it's an F-15, is shot down while conducting an operation over southwestern Iran, the province of Khuzestan. It's shot down by a shoulder-fired missile, and it's the first plane, the first U.S. plane that's been shot down in the war.
Apart from the ones shot down by the Kuwaitis, I should say, by the air defense. You know, there were those friendly fire. That's a different one. Shot down by the Iranians.
It's the first plane the Iranians have shot down. But there is a new Kuwaiti ace because he's shot down two U.S. Was it two U.S. planes?
I remember it was two or three, I think.
Yeah, that wasn't a good look. Okay, so it's a two-seater. Both the pilot and the weapons systems officer eject. Now, the pilot was in constant communication and is rescued hours later by a 21 aircraft rescue force, which goes in under constant fire for a bunch of different reasons we don't need to get into.
But during this sort of effort to get the pilot, a Reaper drone is shot down and then an A-10 Warthog is also hit, but it's able to fly away. probably to Kuwait, where the pilot ejects because the aircraft is not landable. The helicopters that are flying in to go after the pilot take constant fire on the way out, but the pilot is rescued. So in this case, knew where the guy was the whole time.
He's in communication. The pilot was not injured after he ejected, not seriously, and he's rescued. Now, it's a bit hairy, right? I mean, these planes are shot up. There's a difference between... having sort of air dominance and total mastery of the air. And we obviously don't have the latter, but the pilots rescued relatively quickly.
But the weapons system officer, WSO, or as I see is called the WIZO, now he's missing. And crucially, they really don't hear from him.
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Chapter 6: How did the rescue team plan to extract the pilot?
I mean, they've ejected. And even though obviously they've ejected from the same aircraft, but they deliberately go, I think, in different directions, don't they? And of course, wind and all kinds of things can take you in very different places. And there is this mystery because there is no contact or communication from him in the immediate aftermath of this.
The Wizzo is call sign. You'll be curious to know, Gordon. Call sign, Dude 44 Bravo. So Dude 44 Alpha was the pilot. This is Dude 44 Bravo. And he's missing. Where in the world is the Wizzo? Now, surveillance drones and planes can't find him. There are apparently two Blackhawk helicopters involved in the search. Blackhawks, again, Gordon. They're shot, but not downed.
And by nightfall on Friday, the WIZO is considered missing in action.
Yeah, and I think the US is almost preparing to put out a statement about what's been happening and then pauses because not being able to locate him quickly is a big problem because, of course, the Iranians will also be looking for him, as we'll see, and looking pretty hard. And, of course, the issue is if Iran can capture him, that is a huge propaganda prize for them to parade on TV.
And it is leverage in any negotiations. And it is something, you know, we talked about this in our Black Hawk Down series, which we just did, which is the emotional significance as well for the US military in not leaving someone behind and being seen to go after someone, even if, as in Black Hawk Down, It puts many more people at risk. That is just part of the culture.
But it is also related, I think, to the risk of what could happen. So here we are. We don't know where he is. But having had no news from him, he is eventually going to be detected, isn't he?
He is. And we should say there, I think there does continue to be some ambiguity about... why he was not able to get in contact. Because when he ejects, he has with him, he has a pistol, he has a beacon that he can use so that the US can find his location.
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Chapter 7: What parallels exist between the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs?
And he also has a kind of souped up pager that he can use to communicate. But there is this long period where he maybe isn't able to use them. Now there have been some reports that he's potentially injured, right? Obviously, he was injured, but he might have been concussed, could have been knocked out for a period of time.
He's also, we've now learned, begun a hike up a 7,000-foot cliff to wedge himself into a crevice so he could hide. Because to your point, Gordon, on you know, the Iranians looking for him to get leverage, right? He knows that. And his goal here is evasion and survival. And so he hides himself. He'll eventually...
activate the beacon, which is, by the way, is called a Combat Survivor Evader Locator. And it's a device made by, which has a real nice rig to it. It's a device made by Boeing. And it is basically a global 911 emergency call system for downed personnel. And I know you don't have 911 in the UK, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, 999. I think we get it. But you know the concept. Yeah.
So that's what it is, right? So he's got that. And as a side note, we discussed this and previous examples of how technology is used to locate missing military personnel in hostile environments in our latest free newsletter, which If you're not getting that, you really should. And you can go to therestisclassified.com to sign up.
But it seems like even with that, there's this period of time where he has not yet authenticated that it's him. Because obviously, he could be down, out of contact, and then all of a sudden, the US gets a ping from the beacon, but you don't know who it is, potentially. And he needs to validate that it's him with a code.
Yeah, because the risk is otherwise for the US.
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Chapter 8: What lessons can be learned from past military strikes on nuclear programs?
If he's in Iranian hands, you could be luring rescue teams into a trap. And the Iranians, in the meantime, have mustered forces to look for him. And they announce, I mean, we've seen these pictures on state TV broadcasts that, you know, Iranians should go look for him and turn him over for a kind of $60,000 reward.
So you see these people kind of crawling over places and looking armed, some of those locals, looking for him, basically.
We should say the plane goes down in a very remote region of Iran. So it's not like outside of a city, right? I mean, he is out in kind of the middle of nowhere. The CIA, I know, Gordon, you're excited to see the CIA taking a really heroic role in this story.
Can't keep him out of the story.
Can't keep him out of the story. So you have a downed plane, downed airman, you're trying to find someone. It would be very standard to have the agency get involved in to help potentially locate them, because the agency probably has assets on the ground who might be able to help with the search.
In addition, as we'll see, potentially some interesting tools that you could use to locate this downed airbed. Now, what the CIA is also doing is developing a deception plan to buy some time to locate exactly where this guy is and to mount the rescue. It seems, and we should say, reports are going to still come out on this.
Yeah, and they're a bit sketchy.
It's still kind of early days, and they are a little bit sketchy. But it seems that the CIA is basically using assets that it has in Iran, including potentially some interesting technological capabilities, to spread disinformation inside the Iranian security forces and the IRGC. to indicate that, okay, we've already found the airman and we're smuggling him out in a ground convoy.
We're going to take him out on the roads.
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