Chapter 1: What security challenges do Baltic countries face from Russia?
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What does the threat from Russia look like if you're on its borders? And are Western spies and governments agreed on how to confront it? Well, welcome to The Rest is Classified. I'm Gordon Carrera. This time there's no David McCloskey. That's because I'm actually in Estonia, one of the Baltic states in its capital, Tallinn. I'm here for a security conference at which...
officials, spy chiefs, other types are all meeting to try and look at some of the threats, particularly from Russia, some of the issues around Ukraine, but also the NATO alliance, how it's getting on, what the relationships with the Americans are like. I've been here actually chairing a panel with some of the spy chiefs from the region.
I'd love to tell you more about that, but I'm afraid that really is classified because it was an off-the-record panel. But I've spent a couple of days here also going down to close to the Russian border for a military exercise called Spring Storm, watching Estonian Defence Forces work with French troops there.
who were there in some camouflage vehicles, and some British troops who were camped in the woods in some, I think, less glamorous conditions than the French, strangely enough, using some sensor devices which were hidden in trees and which could detect
using video imagery, but also seismic activity, whether, for instance, Russian troops might at one point go over the border, all part of this exercise. And it's all a sign really that Estonia, the Baltic states are on the front line from the Russian threat. I mean, very, very close.
While we were going to this exercise at one point, we went just a couple of miles from the Russian border and were told to put our phones on airplane mode. The reason being that otherwise they might switch to a Russian mobile phone network. I'm not entirely sure whether we were told not to do that because they might spy on us or whether it was because we'd rack up a huge mobile bill.
But anyway, that's what we were told to do. There are also, I think, some pictures circulating of me clambering out of a French kind of tank armoured reconnaissance vehicle, not very elegantly. If you see those, they are not AI generated. I'm afraid they really were me.
But this, we thought, might be a chance on the podcast to give you a bit of a sense of how the security and intelligence situation feels if you're in the Baltic states, if you're on the border with Russia. How worried are people here about that possible threat of maybe a Russian invasion or of sabotage, the so-called hybrid or gray zone warfare that's going on?
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Chapter 2: How does NATO's relationship with the US impact Baltic security?
So I hope you don't mind too much. Two people I sat down with first were two journalists, two quite good friends of mine, I have to admit. Shane Harris from The Atlantic magazine in the United States and Sean Walker from The Guardian newspaper in the UK, also written a very good book called The Illegals on Russian spies, just to talk a bit about what we were learning from the conference.
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Okay, I am sat with two distinguished veteran correspondents who cover not just these conferences, but the world of national security, Russia, intelligence, and also, I have to admit, two friends of mine, Shane Harris, now a staff writer at The Atlantic magazine in the US, and Sean Walker, who is from The Guardian, also author of a very good book on illegals, one of my favorite topics.
Deep cover Russian spies. Both of you, thanks for joining us. Shane, what's your view of the mood of this conference? It's a little bit like from the opening session onwards. There's an edginess between the US and Europe, isn't there?
Yeah, I think so. I mean, it's like this conference when I came last year was sort of like this feeling of, you know, the US and Europe, are we breaking up? And this year it's kind of like, hmm, it feels like we're breaking up. Like you feel there's a frostiness even that was there last year and this year just feels like it's more settled into like a freeze.
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Chapter 3: What insights were shared at the Lennart Meri security conference?
But it's interesting. It was sort of, it felt like to me, people here just have resigned to the fact that the United States, and Tom DiNano is his name, by the way, and in his defense, he did keep saying the United States is not leaving Europe. We're not leaving NATO. But I think that there's a real understanding that the relationship has fundamentally changed.
And I'm not sure that people are counting on that snapping back if a Democrat is elected in 28. Maybe it will, but it does feel like Europe has been planning for life after America for a while. And This conference kind of reflects that. Sean, what do you think?
Yeah, I would agree. I mean, I think it's, you know, in this part of Europe, you have the, by the size of the countries and their location, they're naturally very cautious about saying anything publicly that would be sort of critical of the US.
And I think last year there was still this, even though we'd had, you know, Hegseth coming to Brussels and we'd had Zelensky being humiliated in the White House, there was still this sense of like, oh, you know, looking at the positives, like actually Trump is just waking us all up and this is great and it's all going to be fine.
and yeah this year it it feels a little bit different um i was talking uh a couple of hours ago to a russian journalist who said it was uh fascinating to be in that room with tom denano and for one moment it seemed like russia wasn't the main enemy of everyone in the room and there was this real frustration i mean you know the man was asked twice a very direct question
Would the US come to the defense of a Baltic state if it was invaded? And his answer did not include the word yes. Yeah, it was a more complicated answer, wasn't it?
And there was this constant questioning, will you say explicitly Russia is a threat? And there was a kind of there seemed to be a moment where even that was difficult to say.
Yeah. And I think he's like, look, I mean, somebody in his position knows that he's one bad quote away that gets tweeted from losing his job. Right. I mean, and and, you know, again, he did say that the United States is with NATO, but it did kind of feel halfhearted. Right.
And I think people in the room understood that and were pressing for more of an answer, knowing he probably wouldn't give it.
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Chapter 4: How do Baltic nations prepare for potential Russian aggression?
Yeah. What about, I mean, we're interested in the intelligence and the classified world on this podcast. What's your sense? We've obviously got to be a bit discreet about our sources, all being good journalists, about what the mood is within that world. I mean, we're talking about some of the political relationships and diplomatic relationships getting a bit more tetchy.
Do you think that's also true at the working intelligence level?
I would say at the working level, things still feel like they're largely working to people, but it's not as smooth as it used to be. I do think that there is hesitation and even suspicion on this part of some Europeans about sharing sensitive information with the Americans, not for fear that their working level colleagues will misuse it, but that something goes up the chain to the White House or-
Yeah, or lands at the Hoover Building and somebody gets a hold of it who works there and they don't particularly like what he does with it. There's real concern about that. I mean, look, I think that if you talk to people in European intelligence services about the political leadership of the intelligence community, there's deep, deep anxiety about that.
The CIA feels a little bit, I think, on more of a steady ground. I mean, John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, from people I talk to, seems like someone they look at and they're like, this is a counterpart that we feel good working with. And they're, to be candid, glad that he's the one who's actually in charge and not the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who is utterly marginalized.
But there's no doubt that there are tensions here. And I think that there's a real... Desire on the part of some of these foreign services to to get the Americans, particularly the CIA, to recommit on to be very committed on Ukraine and to be aggressive. And I think that there's a feeling that, you know, the CIA is with Ukraine right now, even if the White House feels like they're not.
Yeah. What's your set, Sean?
Yeah, I think, I mean, on recent trips to Ukraine and talking to people in Kyiv, yeah, definitely there's a sense that with the exception of that kind of very brief week back last spring, not much on the ground has really changed. happy to work.
And I think perhaps because of the obvious levels of discretion in this, because it does happen behind closed doors, there's less of a worry than there is with other policy areas where you don't want to say anything publicly and you don't want to be seen to be helping. So I think those links are quite strong. But I guess there is also just this fear
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Chapter 5: What is the current mood regarding US support for NATO allies?
And until then, probably what's more likely is the kind of escalation of the sabotage. So like the sabotage in Europe so far hasn't been aimed at killing people like it was in Ukraine. But maybe they could step that up. And then, you know, where's the line? What's the war? What's Article 4? What's Article 5? Like, it's all quite foggy and... Yeah.
And you really, I mean, you know, to the point about, you know, not starting World War III, and this is what Trump literally talks about, right? When he berated Zelensky, you know, months ago in the Oval Office, he's saying, you're going to start World War III. And I will say, it was a fear that the Biden administration had too.
I mean, Mark Milley literally walked around when he was chairman of the Joint Chiefs with index cards. On the top of which, one of it was written, don't start World War III. Always a good reminder. Objective, don't get into a nuclear war with the Russians.
And it was sort of based on a set of presumptions that the Russians would rush up the escalatory ladder, that they might use a tactical nuclear weapon. It seemed like those anxieties kind of, you know, ebbed over time. I think when Trump talks about not wanting to start a war with Russia, he has different calculations and different ideas in mind, right?
Which is, you know, I think that he views Russia as almost like a pure power. And I don't think the U.S. intelligence community views it that way. But, you know, he is seemingly like, you know, trying to obviously avoid escalation, but extract from this as well. And, you know, and wants to be done with Ukraine the way I think he wants to be done with Iran. You feel that in this audience too.
Yeah.
So, uh, I hope you enjoy, do you enjoy these conferences? I mean, my, I'm not sure my liver always enjoys these conferences or my sleep patterns. Cause I think you were here. I could see you quite late last night. I was up late. Yeah. You were later than I was.
I think you, I think you had an early bed cause I had to moderate at eight.
It starts so early. I did last night. I come a day, I come a day early and you're right. I did not go with you on the bus. with the chips down at the car park and whatever. So I took myself to a very nice dinner.
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Chapter 6: How does intelligence sharing work within NATO?
They're just yet another voice in that decision-making process. In some nations, military and civilian services might actually be prohibited from working with each other. It's not just that perhaps they don't want to, they may not. So to have a joint division where every ally contributes and the personnel participate from those allies, they do behave differently at NATO.
And I think the final thing here, the big takeaway, is the role of intelligence, especially at the strategic level there, was so interesting for me as a practitioner to observe in that I'd worked at the White House, I'd worked at the Pentagon, then at NATO, had a variety of roles over the course of my career. That one was the most demanding in terms of the need to do intelligence diplomacy.
Ask for collection, ask for information to be provided, ask for different personnel, ask to come and visit and be briefed in a way that's gonna make sense within your system so that I understand when the nations come together, What must we say?
There was this intelligence picture about what Russia was planning, and yet some people took it more seriously than others. I wonder if that was cultural, whether it was because it was the US and UK, and some countries are less trusting of the US and UK. But it was interesting, wasn't it, that some countries really didn't believe it was happening? And we've heard that even here at this conference.
People admit they missed that.
Yeah, sure, Gordon. But I just would differ on the use of the word serious in this context. disagreeing with the analytic view is not the same as being unserious. Yeah. So you can see the same pieces of intelligence make a different interpretation. Absolutely.
You could either draw a different conclusion altogether, which would be based on a range of things, or I think more correctly in this case, different capitals have different risk thresholds and then correspondingly different levels of evidence and confidence for themselves in that picture before they're willing to take a political and military set of actions based on it.
Let me just bring it up to date now. I mean, you're out of that role now, but there is this question about how far the NATO alliance, Western countries which form part of it, see the world and see the threat in the same way. And it does feel like there's a greater divergence maybe now than we've seen in the past.
I mean, whether it's particularly from the US to some European allies who've been here at this conference, you can sense a difference in language and interpretation. Is that political? Is it intelligence-based? Does it cause strains for the intelligence world?
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Chapter 7: What role does trust play in NATO's operations and alliances?
There's a kind of fine balance, isn't there, in how to talk about the threat and how big it is.
I mean, here, having adopted from day one the Finnish model of a conscription army, we can get within a day 75,000 troops, all of whom are, I mean, they're reservists and they have all trained and they continue to train because they have regular reserve exercises. And that is, as I said, that's what the Finns have been practicing for 75 years.
So there is an awareness among people here that we have to be prepared. We also have Home Guard, which has seen an explosion in membership. Again, to be prepared. But the outside narratives of Narva's next, partially based on... The town on the border. Right, and partially based on the appeal of alliteration, and then the stunning visual picture of two fortresses
Now, countering that argument, of course, I mean, Narva is next. There is absolutely no irredentism or secessionism on the Russian side. So it's about defending Russians. You know, the salaries across the river are like $250 or euros a month. They're 1,500 on the Estonian side.
If you're anyone who is a permanent resident of this country, being a member of the EU, can live and work anywhere in Europe except for the UK.
Sorry.
And of course, why would any person want to be... part of a Russia where your father, brother, husband, or son can be taken off and probably would be taken off.
Sent to Ukraine.
Right. But it looks nice on the map and that's why we end up getting a lot of this because there are a lot of other border towns.
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