Chapter 1: What recent events have led to the discussion about Cuba?
It's been a wild couple days for Iran developments. The latest, Ayatollah Khamenei's son will replace him as supreme leader. President Trump might reinstate the draft.
President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table.
Then on Sunday, there was this unforgettable tweet from Meghan McCain. I've known Lindsey Graham since I was a child. I'm imploring anyone who will listen in the Trump administration to stop sending this man out as a surrogate. He is scaring people. OK, so Senator Graham was interviewed on Fox where he went ham on Iran.
We're going to blow the hell out of these people. It ain't about money today. It's about six Americans who died in the defense of our country.
Then at the end, Graham made a chilling geographical and geostrategic turn. Iran is going down and Cuba is next. Is Cuba next? We're going to ask on Today Explained.
Senator, thank you very much.
Chances are your favorite websites used to depend on Google for traffic and money. But that's not really working anymore. Now publishers are scrambling for new lifelines. Neil Vogel, who runs People Inc., says his company figured it out a couple years ago.
You would think, given what everyone said about us, that we would be the guys that would be doing the worst now. We're kind of the guys doing the best now.
I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels, the show about tech and media and what happens when they collide. You can hear my conversation with Neil Vogel now, wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
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Chapter 2: How is the U.S. administration planning to address the situation in Cuba?
It is clear that the forces of communism are not to be underestimated in Cuba or anywhere else in the world.
What's happening in Cuba is not a failure of the Cuban people, it's a failure of Fidel Castro and of communism. Cuba, see, Castro, no.
All the people of Cuba must be able to learn the truth about the regime in Havana, the isolation it has earned for itself through its contempt for basic human rights and international law.
No matter what the dictator intends or plans, Cuba sera pronta e libre.
And President Trump now on a high from his successful ousting of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, his, you know, in part with Israel, killing of the Ayatollah Khamenei and this ongoing effort. to bring about an end to the Iranian regime, although they still do not blatantly say that this is a regime change operation, but it seems clear that that's where it's heading.
Advisors are telling me that he feels like he's on a roll. It's working. And so Cuba is next on the list.
Cuba's at the end of the line. They're very much at the end of the line.
When President Trump is asked about the timing, about why now exactly, what does he say? What does his administration say? So there are various elements to this, right? You know, you have the immigration element of it. The president, you know, believed that Nicolas Maduro's regime was supporting narco-terrorism. And that was their justification for it.
It's why they said that removing him was a law enforcement operation.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of regime change for Cuba?
And so that lifeline that Cuba was getting from Venezuela has now been virtually eliminated, on top of the fact that their economy has been crumbling for many years now, in part because of crippling sanctions that the U.S. has imposed on it, in part because COVID really did a number on their economy and other factors as well. But that's been key.
Right.
From where we sit in early March, we know that both Venezuela and Iran share – have shared a very big question after the U.S. gets involved, which is who takes over? Who is set to take over in Cuba? Who does the U.S. want in charge? Well, this is the big question, right? And the U.S. does not – outwardly talk about any particular individuals.
We know that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been talking to the former president's grandson, Raul Castro's grandson, trying to see if they could find some sort of a solution. There have been sort of back-channel talks between the U.S. and the Cuban regime to see if a deal could be struck where they could maybe peacefully and quietly... you know, hit the road.
President Trump joked about a friendly takeover a few weeks ago. Very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba. And so, you know, they've sort of alluded to the fact that the U.S. would kind of go in there and do some sort of regime change operation. But what they haven't talked about, and it's rather intentional, is what comes after the post-Castro regime.
Let me ask you lastly, President Trump is talking like this is inevitable.
Cuba's in its last moments of life as it was. It'll have a great new life, but it's in its last moments of life the way it is.
What do you think? Is this inevitable? Reading the tea leaves, it certainly feels like this could be inevitable. Again, to one of your first questions, why now? Because they believe the circumstances are ripe for regime change in Cuba. They see between Venezuela, between the momentum that the U.S. has had, that this is going to work if they do it now. The time to strike is now.
And I also want to emphasize that President Trump's coalition, his MAGA coalition, has not been that open to some of this military adventurism. A lot of them pointing to the fact that it goes against America first. It betrays America first. That President Trump is fixated on overseas conflicts and not paying enough attention to the economy and other issues.
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