US and Iran exchange strikes: is Trump’s peace deal over? - The Latest
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
This is The Guardian.
It's clear that Trump is trying to sort of escalate out of this. We just hit him very hard. And I say we hit him 20 to 1. Every time they hit us, we're going to hit him 20. Two railway bridges have been hit between Tehran and Mashhad. Both sides, I think, would want to find a way of climbing down.
From The Guardian's Today In Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoth. Donald Trump has said the truce with Iran is over as the US has struck 170 sites in Iran over the past two nights. Julian Borgia, you are our senior international correspondent. We're speaking to you from Jerusalem. What caused this escalation?
Well, on Monday night, Tuesday morning, Iran appears to have struck three ships were going through the Strait of Hormuz. And what seems to have happened is these ships, which included an oil tanker and an LNG gas tanker, were going along a route that hadn't been approved by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC. And that seems to be, at the crux of it, control of the strait.
Okay. Yes, because control of the straight is clearly the big issue or was the big issue in terms of finding some kind of true ceasefire. But it was quite broadly written, wasn't it? And I think contained many holes that we're starting to see now. Iran say they feel that the memorandum of understanding gave them control of this part. The US disagrees. So do they have an argument here? Does Iran have a point?
Well, I think it's fair to say that shooting at ships goes against the spirit of the memorandum of understanding. I think the language in the memorandum was that Iran would make arrangement for its best efforts to ensure safe passage. It was an odd kind of language. But obviously shooting at ships doesn't really fit under that. And it's worth remembering that in Iran, there are a lot of factions, groups involved. power centers who are very much against this whole agreement. So there are spoilers in there. But yes, it is hazy. There are implications that Iran does have a claim to have some kind of control. It's not supposed to make any charges or tolls for 60 days, but it is given the opportunity to discuss with Oman and other countries
states in the region what the future of the strait should be, which implies some kind of ownership.
Yeah, right.
Why has Donald Trump declared the truce with Iran 'over' after 48 hours of strikes?
Well, at least clearer terms on this agreement on the Straits of Henry. So what's likely to happen next? Because, I mean, 170 strikes in two nights is a very large military offensive. Can we expect days of violence at that scale, do you think?
Well... It's clear that Trump is trying to sort of escalate out of this. It was about 80 strikes on the first night and then 90. And he's threatened, oh, this is only going to get worse. And this is how he approaches these kind of situations, trying to escalate out. And then, as we've seen before, climb back down. And I think it's likely... Both major parties in this situation don't want a return to a full scale war. US because of all the economic ripple effects from that and the approach of elections and Iran because it's only just getting some relief after that. months of war and years of sanctions. And it was getting some sanctions relief on its oil exports. That's now been revoked for the time being.
Both sides, I think, would want to find a way of climbing down.
What triggered the escalation — how did the attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz lead to strikes?
Yeah, yeah. And moving forward back to this more stable position. But the timing of this is all very sensitive, isn't it? Because it's the week-long funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the early strikes when war broke out at the end of February. He is due to be buried today. So the idea that a revival of military action is happening as the former Supreme Leader is buried is significant.
Yeah, very significant. And most of the targets have been along Iran's southern coast. There have been reports that two railway bridges have been hit between Tehran and Mashhad, which is where the funeral is taking place. So, you know, that looks very much like a pointed message. It'd be presumably one of the routes that people attending the funeral would be hoping to go back on.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:56
2
Why has Donald Trump declared the truce with Iran 'over' after 48 hours of strikes?
2:56–4:12
3
What triggered the escalation — how did the attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz lead to strikes?
4:12–8:34
4
Does the June memorandum of understanding give Iran control over parts of the Strait of Hormuz?
8:34–9:36
5
How have ambiguities and internal Iranian factions contributed to the breakdown of the ceasefire?
9:36–9:55