Pacific explodes with activity as Atlantic stays quiet | Tracking the Tropics
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Why is the Atlantic basin unusually quiet while the Pacific is so active?
Welcome to this week's edition of Tracking the Tropics. We've got guest meteorologist Scott Roberts with us, as well as meteorologist Justin Mosley. We were going to be talking about exciting things that might have been happening in the Gulf, but unfortunately, Mother Nature had other plans. It is incredibly quiet across the Atlantic, but we are weather nerds. So we're hopping over to the Pacific. We're switching ocean basins because there are some cool storms to take a look at and some activity that'll be developing. So we'll take a look at that coming up. On tracking the tropics.
Live from our hurricane headquarters, with real-time analysis from some of the nation's top meteorologists, this is Tracking the Tropics, powered by Bose Generators.
For this week's normal, normally regular scheduled episode. You know, we do pop on here when anything is forming and let you know what's going on, but you can see that that mess across the Gulf is just falling apart. And so we are not going to get the tropical storm that we had hoped for s because we've been incredibly dry here. We're live in the WFLA Streaming Studios in Tampa, Florida. I'm meteorologist Rebecca Berry. We've got Justin Mosley as well as meteorologist Scott Mosley. Excuse me, Scott Roberts with us, uh our guest meteorologist from our Savannah station. Thanks so much for joining us, Scott.
Hey, thanks for having me once again. It's always great to join you guys.
We love when Scott joins us. He's just up the road in Savannah, Georgia. And we've got Justin Mosley here. He's doing double duty. Normally he's our deep dive guy. We're like, talk nerdy to me, Justin. Give us your Florida history because you've been a Florida meteorologist so long in the good way. And have all the history in perspective. But today you're pulling double duty. You've got the graphics and the breakdown of what we can expect.
That's right.
What does the Gulf‑region front look like and why isn’t it developing into a tropical storm?
And we want to kind of get into it because we do have that disturbance that we're watching right now. And it is over land right now. It's associated with a front that we've been uh keeping track of as of late. And this boundary that we're watching is very typical for this time of the year. We see these boundaries, fronts work their way to the south over the open waters of the Gulf. And with that. Sometimes you can acquire a tropical system. Uh spin or circulation can develop here, and that's what we're seeing on the satellite review right now. There's a mid-level area of low pressure across Georgia and Alabama and Mississippi. And the model data that we have suggests that it's going to work its way to the south, but it's not as robust as what we were looking at as of late.
So the odds or the chances for development continuing to diminish. So that's one of the reasons we're Not expecting any tropical development over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center. We're always watching, but right now, Uh things are looking pretty good over the Gulf Water. So here's a setup. We got a lot of deep tropical moisture associated with that front and that disturbance kind of working its way to the south. But due to the strong upper level wind shear that we see this time of the year, we're not anticipating it to develop into a major tropical system. As of right now, things can change. We'll keep you advised, but things are looking pretty good from that standpoint associated with.
with that particular area of weather. This is one of our models we use. We're on global models, the Euro. And we're kind of highlighting This area here, uh giving a lot of rain to the state of Florida. We could use that here. Uh we are undergoing a severe and even extreme drought here along the west coast of the state. And many times you see these tropical cyclones get going in the Gulf and they can just kind of sit and give you beneficial rains. Of course, you don't want the strong winds associated with it. But if we don't see development, hopefully we'll see a little bit of rain across the Tampa Bay area, at least in much of the Gulf Coast of the state of Florida from that area of weather.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the Atlantic basin unusually quiet while the Pacific is so active?
0:01–1:37
2
What does the Gulf‑region front look like and why isn’t it developing into a tropical storm?
1:37–4:50
3
How are Saharan dust plumes affecting tropical development this week?
4:50–10:48
4
What impact is the strong El Niño currently having on Atlantic hurricane activity?
10:48–14:43
5
Which Pacific storms are expected to form over the next few days and where will they track?
14:43–18:05
6
How could rapid intensification occur off the Mexican coast under today’s ocean conditions?
18:05–22:54
7
What are the forecasted seasonal totals for named storms and hurricanes according to the latest models?
22:54–25:12
8
How should listeners prepare for a potentially active winter season despite a quiet start?
25:12–25:53
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Season Podcast
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