Potential tropical trouble brewing close to land | Tracking the Tropics
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What potential tropical system is developing off the Carolina coast?
Is it a fish storm or is it a homemade rainmaker? This episode of Tracking the Tropics, we are taking a look at the next area of potential development.
Live from our hurricane headquarters, with real-time analysis from some of the nation's top meteorologists, this is Tracking the Tropics, powered by Bose Generators.
We made one month down, five months to go of hurricane season. We are tracking the tropics, and we do have a little area that we're watching to de for potential development, and it's right off the coast of the Carolinas. Welcome to the WFLA Streaming Center. I'm meteorologist Rebecca Berry. Joining us is the Tracking the Tropics team. Check it out. We have meteorologist Juliana Mejia. She does all of the graphics for this show. She puts in all the time and Effort. And we also have meteorologist Justin Mosley joining us as well. He is our deep dive expert. And so he is the one who's going to get nitty-gritty with the science and let us know all the perspective. And since he's been a Florida meteorologist for a very, very long time, in the good way, he has all the knowledge.
We also have a guest meteorologist joining us this week, and he is no stranger to tracking the tropics. It's chief meteorologist David Nusbaum. From our sister station in Birmingham. Thank you so much for joining us, David.
Thanks for having me.
All right, I'm gonna go ahead and get right to it. We're gonna send Juliana to the wall to see what is going on with this potential system. It's kind of close to home. Is it gonna head out to sea and be a fish storm? Is it going to be a big rainmaker for the different areas that it may end up impacting? She has got the latest and she's got everything you need to know. It does only have a 10% chance to develop. So that is the good news. We are not looking at a giant chance for development. We're just looking at very, very small chances. So it could, it couldn't. I know that the areas in the Carolinas right now would really like for it to bring them a little bit of rain and help cool them off a little bit, but Juliana, take it away.
Yeah, absolutely. Hopefully you can hear me okay. Here's a look at the lemon, our little blob here just off of the southeast coast of the United States. Low end chances here, ten percent chance forty-eight hours, ten percent chance over the next several days. Uh this is connected to at this point kind of a weak front. That weak front's actually helping to elevate our rain chances here in the Tampa Bay area across northern and central parts of Florida. And this has again very low end odds of developing altogether, but it is something to watch. Here's a look at it on satellite and radar where you actually can now start to see a little bit of that spin. Really lopsided a whole bunch of convection here on the eastern half of that kind of area of rotation.
Of course, though, just a rough area of low pressure. that could, over the coming days, uh tried to develop a little bit more again, likely in the next twenty four, forty eight hours or so.
How likely is the “fish storm” to become a named tropical cyclone?
Looking across the Atlantic Basin, kind of a number of things that are uh, you know, less favorable in terms of this trying to develop or having the opportunity to really develop into anything substantial. Higher wind shear exists generally along the main development region at this point in time across uh the Atlantic Basin. You can see a little closer to home, a little closer to the southeast coast of the US. Not incredibly impressive in terms of wind shear, but it does look like upper-level winds will pick up a little bit more over the next few days, which will become more hostile for this area of low pressure to try to do anything or to try to stay even remotely organized. And here's a look at that on the moisture forecasts as well, where this is connected to this kind of elongated, just rough, very weak boundary.
And now right now the forecast does point. To this low or whatever form it may try to take here that just slide its way a little farther to the west. So we I will take a look at upper level ridging here in just a second, but that will play the upper level wind pattern, will play a bit of a role in kind of nudging this a bit to the south before then kind of dragging it farther to the west.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What potential tropical system is developing off the Carolina coast?
0:01–2:47
2
How likely is the “fish storm” to become a named tropical cyclone?
2:47–7:50
3
What do satellite and radar images reveal about the system’s structure?
7:50–11:42
4
How are weak fronts and upper‑level winds influencing development today?
11:42–15:58
5
What impact does Saharan dust and the current El Niño have on Atlantic storm chances?
15:58–19:24
6
Will the system bring rain to the Southeast and how could it affect flooding?
19:24–23:06
7
What are the experts’ outlooks for the rest of the 2024 hurricane season?
23:06–26:26
8
How can listeners engage with the show and stay updated on future storms?
26:26–26:47
Speakers
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