Show notes
**政治篇Politics **
1. Taiwan’s presidential election will be a three-way race after all
Even if the dpp retains the presidency, it is likely to lose its majority in Taiwan’s legislature in concurrent assembly elections. That would make it harder to pass laws against Chinese influence or budgets with increased defence spending. In any event, it is already clear that the question of Taiwan’s posture towards the mainland will dominate the election. Most of Taiwan’s voters appear torn. They want a president who can navigate the next four years of America-China competition, by at once avoiding war and maintaining Taiwanese sovereignty. Now that the question of candidates has been settled, the debate on how to thread that fiendishly tricky needle can begin.
臺灣的總統選舉最終將成為一場三角爭奪戰。 即使民進黨保住總統職位，也有可能在同期的立法院選舉中失去多數席位。這將使通過反對中國影響或增加國防開支的法律變得更加困難。無論如何，目前已經明確，臺灣對大陸的立場將主導選舉。大多數臺灣選民似乎矛盾重重。他們希望選出一位總統，能夠在美中競爭的未來四年中航行，既能避免戰爭，又能保持臺灣的主權。現在候選人問題已經解決，關於如何巧妙應對這個棘手問題的辯論可以開始了。
2. Almost all of OpenAI’s employees signed on to an open letter urging their board to resign, after it sacked the company’s boss, Sam Altman, on Friday. The letter’s organisers said that nearly 700 employees—out of 770—threatened to jump ship to Mr Altman’s newly established team at Microsoft (which is OpenAI’s biggest investor). Emmett Shear, former head of Twitch, a video-streaming service, will lead OpenAI in the interim.
OpenAI的幾乎所有員工都在一封公開信上簽名敦促董事會辭職，此前公司老闆薩姆·奧特曼在週五被解雇。信件的組織者表示，770名員工中有將近700人，威脅要加入奧特曼在微軟新成立的團隊（微軟是OpenAI的最大投資者）。前Twitch主管埃米特·謝爾將在過渡期內領導OpenAI。
3. Joe Biden said that he believes that Hamas and Israel are nearing a hostage-release deal. Under such an agreement, Hamas would return some of the hostages it is holding in Gaza, in exchange for Israel temporarily pausing its offensive. Earlier the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry said 12 people were killed as Israeli tanks reportedly encircled the Indonesian hospital in northern Gaza.
喬·拜登表示，他相信哈馬斯和以色列正接近一項釋放人質的協議。根據這項協定，哈馬斯將會釋放在加沙拘押的一些人質，以換取以色列暫時停止其軍事進攻。此前，據報導以色列坦克包圍了加沙北部的印尼醫院，該地的哈馬斯衛生部門表示有12人喪生。
4. Argentina elected Javier Milei, a self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist”, as its president. Mr Milei defeated Sergio Massa, the economy minister, in a run-off, securing almost 56% of the vote with counting nearly complete. Inflation was a top concern for voters—the annual rate stood above 140% in October. Mr Milei campaigned on a radical economic platform that included scrapping the central bank and dollarising the economy.
阿根廷選出了自封的“無政府資本主義者”哈威爾·米萊為總統。在決勝選中，米萊先生擊敗了經濟部長塞爾吉奧·馬薩，幾乎在計票完成時獲得了近56%的選票。通貨膨脹是選民的主要關切，截至十月，年度通貨膨脹率超過140%。米萊先生在激進的經濟政綱上進行了競選，其中包括廢除中央銀行和實行貨幣化經濟。
5. Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, said that his country’s support for Ukraine was “for the long haul” whilst on a surprise trip to Kyiv. Mr Austin’s visit comes amid concerns over faltering American support. Earlier, Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the commander of Ukraine’s medical forces, Tetiana Ostashchenko. She had been accused by paramedics of not securing enough first-aid kits.
美國國防部長勞埃德·奧斯丁在對基輔的突 surprise 行訪中表示，美國對烏克蘭的支持是“長期的”。奧斯丁先生的訪問發生在對美國支持減弱的擔憂之際。此前，沃洛迪米爾·澤連斯基解雇了烏克蘭醫療部隊指揮官特蒂安娜·奧斯塔什琴科。護理人員指責她沒有提供足夠的急救包。
6. China’s Middle Eastern diplomacy
For over three decades America has been the Arab-Israeli conflict’s sole broker. But frustrated by America’s refusal to call for a ceasefire after five weeks of Israel’s war in Gaza, Muslim leaders are signalling that they have alternatives. On Tuesday Egyptian, Indonesian, Jordanian, Palestinian and Saudi officials are concluding diplomatic meetings in China, the first stop on a tour of foreign capitals. China is keen to step up. As they arrived in Beijing on Monday, their Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, called for an immediate ceasefire. “Israel should stop collective punishment of the people of Gaza,” he said.
China’s diplomatic forays into the Middle East yielded fruit earlier this year when it brokered a deal to normalise relations between two historic foes, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Resolving Israel’s 75-year-old conflict with the Palestinians will be harder. On Monday Israel’s ambassador to China said that attempts to press Israel on how it wages war were “politically motivated”. And Israel has made clear that it will not forgo America’s more sympathetic mediation.
中國的中東外交 三十多年來，美國一直是阿拉伯以色列衝突的唯一調停人。然而，在以色列在加薩地帶的戰爭已經進行五週之後，美國拒絕呼籲停火，令穆斯林領袖感到沮喪，他們正在發出他們有其他選擇的信號。本週二，埃及、印度尼西亞、約旦、巴勒斯坦和沙特官員正在中國進行外交會談，這是他們對外國首都進行的首站。中國渴望加大參與。在他們週一抵達北京時，中國的對應官員王毅呼籲立即停火。他說：“以色列應該停止對加薩人民的集體懲罰。” 中國在中東的外交努力在今年早些時候取得了成果，當時它促成了一項協議，使兩個歷史上的敵對國——伊朗和沙烏地阿拉伯——正常化了關係。解決以色列和巴勒斯坦之間已有75年歷史的衝突將更加困難。週一，以色列駐中國大使表示，試圖迫使以色列在戰爭中的作為上做出改變的舉措是“出於政治動機”。以色列已明確表示，不會放棄美國更具同情心的調解。
**經濟篇Economy **
1. The Fed’s rate debate
Has the Federal Reserve finished raising interest rates? On Tuesday it will publish minutes from its latest meeting, which ended on November 1st. Investors and analysts will parse the words of officials. At that time the Fed refrained from raising rates in part because of a surge in bond yields. The minutes are likely to show that officials viewed these tighter financial conditions as doing its work for it.
But such an explanation will raise as many questions as answers, because yields have declined by nearly half a percentage point since the meeting took place. Applying the same logic, the Fed may want to lean against this recent loosening of financial conditions by raising rates again. There are, however, other data points that will go into its calculus, most notably the surprising slowdown in inflation last month. The debate will carry on until mid-December, when the Fed next decides on rates.
聯邦儲備的利率辯論
美聯儲是否已經完成升息？週二，它將公佈最新會議的會議記錄，該會議於11月1日結束。投資者和分析師將細讀官員的措辭。當時，由於債券收益率飆升，美聯儲在一定程度上選擇不提高利率。會議記錄可能會顯示官員認為這些更為嚴格的金融條件已經在發揮作用。 但這樣的解釋可能會引起更多問題，因為自該次會議以來，收益率已經下降了近半個百分點。根據相同的邏輯，美聯儲可能希望通過再次提高利率來反對最近金融條件的鬆動。然而，還有其他數據要納入計算，最為顯著的是上個月通脹驚人的減緩。辯論將持續到12月中旬，屆時美聯儲將再次決定利率。
2. Nvidia’s near-monopoly under threat
During a tumultuous weekend which saw Sam Altman sacked from OpenAI, the world witnessed AI’s “boomers” and “doomers” wrestle for dominance. Another AI fight is unfolding in parallel: Nvidia, a chipmaker, will report its quarterly results on Tuesday. The company has a near-monopoly in AI semiconductors and its share price has jumped by over 200% since the beginning of the year. But pressure on its dominance is building.
For national security reasons America’s government has enacted increasingly stringent export controls on AI chips sold to China, which account for a fifth of Nvidia’s sales. The trade restrictions may be driving customers to find new suppliers. Baidu, a large Chinese tech firm, is reportedly buying more AI chips from Huawei, another Chinese firm, rather than Nvidia. At home, the American cloud computing giants—Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft—are increasingly trying to use AI chips designed in-house. Although Nvidia’s results may impress now, things can change quickly. Just ask Mr Altman.
Nvidia的近乎壟斷地位受到威脅
在一個動蕩的週末，我們見證了Sam Altman被OpenAI解雇，全球也見證了AI的“樂觀派”和“悲觀派”爭奪主導地位。與此同時，另一場AI之爭正在展開：晶片製造商Nvidia將於週二公佈其季度業績。該公司在AI半導體領域幾乎壟斷，其股價自年初以來上漲了200%以上。但是，其壟斷地位正受到壓力。 出於國家安全的原因，美國政府對銷往中國的AI晶片實施了日益嚴格的出口管制，這佔了Nvidia銷售額的五分之一。貿易限制可能會迫使客戶尋找新的供應商。據報導，中國大型科技公司百度更多地從另一家中國公司華為購買AI晶片，而非Nvidia。在國內，美國的雲計算巨頭——穀歌、亞馬遜和微軟——越來越嘗試使用自家設計的AI晶片。儘管Nvidia的業績可能令人印象深刻，但形勢可能迅速變化。問問Altman先生就知道了。
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