Adam Posen
speaker
1,220 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2025
last heard 1 Sep
Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
What's already very clear from the data that the foreign companies are not paying for any of this.
So the question is how much are the importers eating it versus passing it on?
And it takes a little time for you to get to that, but generally it's a very robust result.
So even if you get less than that, you get sixty five, seventy percent on average, that's still a lot.
The second is implicit in what you said, and then sometimes in things uh some of the people on the other side of this argument say is essentially the demand destruction is either symmetric to the price increase or is larger than the price increase.
And there's no particularly good reason to assume that.
So you have to look at what actually is going on.
We have a pretty robust economy, pretty close to full employment.
We are about to get
Though it hasn't shown up yet, this to me is the big surprise, but we're about to get more damage in a stagflationary way from migration restrictions, deportations, sudden stop of growth in the labor force.
That's gonna give American workers more bargaining power in the short term.
That's gonna create labor shortages, which put upward pressure on wages.
That's going to decrease productivity and and capacity.
So on balance, you may get some recessionary forces out of both that and the tariff increase, but I strongly doubt they will outweigh the inflationary impulses, that there will be room for price setting, price increases, excuse me, and wage increases.
Third.
Going back to where one of the things you said at the start.
Anchoring inflation expectations is the game.
That ultimately is what allows a central bank to say, as Bernanke Laubach, Mishkin and I argued.
twenty five years ago in the inflation targeting book.
You're allowed to look through the first round effect of supply shocks if it's clear what the supply shock is and you c have anchored expectations.
Showing 1041–1060 of 1,220 · page 53 of 61
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