Adam Posen
speaker
1,220 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2025
last heard 1 Sep
Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
First round effects probably will peak in second quarter of twenty twenty six.
And then the debate is and I my estimate is higher than most people's.
Uh a lot of people think it'll peak around four on CPI.
I think it's gonna peak closer to a five or a little more.
Wow.
And then the discussion which Governor Wallers put out there, which the chair talked about today.
talked about in a speech is
How much do you think this translates into second round inflation effects?
How persistent is this inflation?
And that's the interesting debate and that's a good faith debate you can have.
But the tariff inflation is coming.
It's on its way.
It's not surprisingly low.
It's not surprisingly slow.
It's a tiny bit slower than I expected, but not really.
W uh we're here.
I think you can make a plausible, serious and debate on both sides, but I think the arguments are very clearly on the side that the second round effects are gonna be large and persistent.
There's several reasons, which is why I think it's pretty clear.
The first one is we know from what happened with the tariffs under Trump One, under Biden, from other countries in recent times, that the pass through, what generally you end up being if you're the company that ultimately buys the imported input or the household that buys it, the pass through the final purchaser is usually eighty five to ninety percent.
Of the tariff.
Showing 1021–1040 of 1,220 · page 52 of 61
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