Adam Posen

speaker

1,220 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2025 last heard 1 Sep

Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

Appearances

newest first · ▶ plays the moment

Odd Lots · Adam Posen on a Surreal Jackson Hole in a Post-American World · 26 Aug 2025 podcast

So in the short term, getting back to the monetary policy since we're in Jackson Hole, I think it's not a surprise that we haven't had huge inflation yet from the tariffs, because there were a number of things that

mainstream people like us expected.

People were gonna be in denial about whether the tariffs would stay and how big they would be.

People were gonna have to take time to figure out if you're a business.

Whether

You can find a substitute source, whether you that substitute source is domestic.

If you move it to Vietnam, does that really get you out of the tariffs?

Do you have a good relationship?

I mean, it takes, as you've discussed in detail, these supply chains emerge organically and they're not top-down.

Somebody makes one decision.

So it takes time to re reformulate the supply chains if you're signing the tariffs.

Third, you've got a bunch of companies that were called out by name by President Trump, like GM or Walmart, that were told don't raise prices because of the tariffs.

And so of course they're gonna hold off as long as they can.

And then eventually when everybody's raising prices at ex roughly the same time, they'll raise prices.

And then finally, a lot of these companies and a lot of the consumer goods companies had inventories and they built up inventories in the first quarter of imported goods.

And they weren't gonna raise the prices until

pass through the tariff costs until they got burnt through the inventories.

So you had four very solid reasons why it would take at least a few months for the tariffs to really start showing up in prices.

So if I'm sitting at the Fed right now

In my view, the tariff inflation just goes up from here.

Showing 1001–1020 of 1,220 · page 51 of 61