Adam Posen
speaker
1,220 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2025
last heard 1 Sep
Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And he made a number of points, but the biggest one was if you're in an environment where you're gonna have sustained expansionary fiscal policy pushing up demand.
and meeting shortfalls of demand, then the R star, the neutral interest rate, is higher.
And that's that's pretty clear economics.
And then the reasons which he said and others of us have developed, I think are right that
Going back to the insurance metaphor, the risks are higher now.
There's climate change.
China is wood no matter whose fault it is or whether it was a Neville or not, China is more of a security threat than it was.
Russia is more belligerent than it was.
People have to spend more on that.
Our societies are aging, at least our almost all the large societies, with the exception of India, are aging and you have to spend more on healthcare and more on social security.
All of these things are going to lead to sustained increases in government spending.
Irrespective of whatever else you do.
And they are unlikely, as we've already seen, to be fully tax financed.
So that is a fundamental.
The second fundamental I would argue that's pushing up our star is that we don't know when AI is gonna kick in.
We don't know how big an effect, we don't know how many jobs.
You guys again have had many good guests talking about this.
But I think we can all agree that sometime between two and ten years from now.
there will be a meaningful increase in the productivity growth trend.
There are a few smart people like Osimoglu and Johnson who say no, but most of us think
Showing 1081–1100 of 1,220 · page 55 of 61
← Previous
Next →