Adam Posen

speaker

1,220 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2025 last heard 1 Sep

Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

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Odd Lots · Adam Posen on a Surreal Jackson Hole in a Post-American World · 26 Aug 2025 podcast

that there will be an increase of some sort.

Now I don't have to go all the way to McKinsey Global Institute and believe, you know, it's some enormous number.

But whatever it is, that number.

An improvement in productivity growth trend.

is generally one for one should be thought of as raising the

Equilibrium interest rate because you're raising the average return on capital, essentially.

That's

So it's disinflationary in the sense that in any give for while the productivity gain is ongoing, you're getting more stuff for less.

But as a structural matter, you are raising the average returns on capital in the society.

And so all capital that's competing has to compete with a higher return.

And so therefore R star is up.

Interesting.

and this is why you try to avoid bad policies such as the ones the Trump administration are doing, which get you into a stagflationary situation if you can't.

Essentially it's a contingent choice, and this is why the Fed is right to be putting so much emphasis on debating over second round effects.

of inflationary shocks and things like you were saying, how much pricing power there is, how much recessionary effect do you get from these seglations.

It's essentially a balance issue.

If you're forced to choose between the two goals, the two halves of the Fed's mandate, but the two goals for any central bank.

Essentially you have to go after the one that's more likely to spiral out of control.

Yeah, nonlinear is the way they think of it.

I think again, it's no reason I would take the other side because the evidence is yes, and there's was the discussion about the so called Psalm rule that you can have these very rapid increases in unemployment.

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