Adam Posen
speaker
1,220 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2025
last heard 1 Sep
Adam Posen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But what we've seen is much to people's surprise, but has to be taken seriously.
Is both after two thousand eight.
And after twenty twenty, so after the financial crisis after COVID.
Unemployment actually came down pretty fast and there wasn't evidence of what
economists call hysteresis, which is the idea that once you put a lot of people out of work, it's harder for them to get back into work.
And so it's taken from engineering.
It's a concept that was very true of Europe in the seventies and eighties, that every time you got an unemployment rate,
hike because of recession, it wouldn't come all the way back down to where it was before the recession 'cause there would be a certain number of people who couldn't get back into work.
And ahead of the two thousand eight crisis and during it, including what my time at the Bank of England speeches, and then
Chair Powell and others in twenty twenty during COVID worried a lot about this.
potential for permanently having rises in the unemployment rate.
And but the thing is, all the evidence from 2008 and all the evidence from 2020 is that didn't happen.
And again, it was a surprise, but it's a really important and a really robust result.
it's I'm not in this is not so much I appreciate that job, but this is not so much being a neoliberal as being an empiricist.
So so I mean on my staff at a colleague of mine is Olivier Blanchard and he coined the hysteresis concept forty years ago.
And he and Larry Summers and the co author's name, of course I forget, I apologize, did a paper.
in twenty thirteen, it was like the first paper they did for us after I took over at Peterson, looking for hysteresis effects in the two thousand eight to ten data, and they couldn't find it.
And then Powell again, I think with a great deal of sympathy from me and others, talked a lot about hysteresis for why they were so aggressive and cutting in response to COVID.
But then again, we know the unemployment rate came right down.
So people care about this.
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