Akane Otani
speaker
1,333 appearances
33 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2017
last heard Mar 2023
Akane Otani’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So for one, we've seen a reversal in bond yields.
They took a big hit in August, and that typically indicates that people are starting to feel a lot more worried about the economic outlook.
But we've seen the 10-year Treasury yield actually rise above 1.9% at one point in September.
And at one point, it was heading for its biggest one-month gain in a number of years.
We've also seen cyclical stocks, which tend to benefit from a pickup in economic activity, rise and lead this rally this month.
So things like bank stocks, some industrial stocks even have been doing well, even though there's a lot of uncertainty about trade.
So those are typically things that suggest to us that people actually do feel a little bit more confident compared to what we were seeing in August.
I think it's erased a little bit of the overly pessimistic ammunition out there.
I mean, the fact that we haven't seen a total cancellation of talks again is a little bit of a buffer, right?
I mean, I don't think there are folks who believe that this October meeting is necessarily going to lead to a conclusive agreement on things like intellectual property.
And on things like farm products, for instance.
But I do think what people are more looking out for is signs of the negative.
So signs that there's going to be no meeting at all or that we're going to cancel everything.
You know, once upon a time, that might have seemed like an incredibly low bar.
But I mean, we remember at the start of the year, people were saying, oh, there's probably going to be a trade deal finalized by the summer.
Well, that clearly is not happening anymore.
So I think expectations have been reduced accordingly.
And I think as long as we're not seeing a total dismantling of progress, that's almost a positive these days.
And I think that speaks to this tricky situation that we're in, where, again, the expectations are so low for a conclusive U.S.-China trade deal that it doesn't really make sense to pour a ton of money into the stock market at this point.
At least that's what a lot of investors have been telling me.
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