Akane Otani

speaker

1,333 appearances 33 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2017 last heard Mar 2023

Akane Otani’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Coronavirus Tests Market's Faith in the Global Economy · 29 Jan 2020 podcast

And now we have this virus outbreak that threatens to sort of cut into that assumption a bit.

At the beginning of the month, we did see data from the Chinese government showing that the economy grew in 2019 at the slowest pace in nearly three decades.

And now we're getting analysts suggesting that if the viral outbreak isn't contained in the first couple of months of the year, we could see GDP take a hit there.

So that is quite concerning since China is such a major driver of global economic growth.

It sort of differs from outbreak to outbreak, but it looks like for the most part, even when we do see a short-term disruption to markets due to fears about a pullback in consumer spending, pullback in growth...

Over the long haul, markets seem to be pretty resilient.

There was this Charles Schwab study that showed that over 13 outbreaks since 1981, the MSCI World Index returned an average of 0.8% in a one-month period and 7.1% over six months after an outbreak.

So it pretty much tells you that markets do tend to shrug these things off.

Yeah.

So it tells you that even when things seem very dire and there is, of course, real human cost and human suffering, economic growth tends to be more resilient than we do think.

And that's reflected in the bounce back that we tend to see in the markets.

Because consumer spending is, yes, such a big driver of growth, not just in the U.S., but also in China.

So it'll be really important to watch not just the reports about these cases, but also the economic data over the coming months to see just how serious the situation we're contending with here.

Thanks for having me.

WSJ Your Money Briefing · Wall Street's Recession Fears Have Eased · 23 Sep 2019 podcast

It depends a little bit who you ask.

There are definitely pessimists out there who are still very concerned about what's going on with trade, the global economy, even the Fed.

And they would say, you know, I don't think that recession fears have gone away.

But I do think the moves that we've seen in the market sort of suggest that actually there are a decent number of folks out there who do believe that there was too much pessimism in August.

And so we're not completely optimistic about the state of the global economy.

We're just sort of pulling back on overly pessimistic bets that we saw last month.

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