Billy Gill

who win their first Super Bowl in their second year, in their fourth year, their fifth year.

This is the sweet spot, especially in the 21st century.

I know we like to swoon and we like to bend the knee to Brady and Peyton and everybody else, and I get it.

And then that has informed the same sort of reaction to Mahomes and like we talk about, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, everybody else.

But...

The sweet spot for winning the Super Bowl is guys between their second and sixth seasons.

That's when, in the last 25 Super Bowls, they have been won by, I think, they've been won 14 times by a quarterback in his second to sixth season.

After that, in years seven to 12, it goes down to six Super Bowl victories.

The time to win is right now.

That means Bo Nix.

Drake May, Caleb Williams are in line to go to the Super Bowl.

And by the way, when you get the one seed, I know this is obvious information, but when everything feels like a coin flip, when every game between two halfway decent teams feels like a coin flip, playing one less game is everything.

So if you get the one seed, which is what it seems like Denver and New England's going to get,

And if the Bears take care of business against Green Bay, they may get the 1C2.

They should be the favorite based on the last 25 years, based on this millennium's history.

It all points to those guys being the right teams to look at and circle, even if you like to swoon over the bigger brand name guys who, like I said five minutes ago, some of whom aren't even going to be in the tournament this year.

I did not know the rules on... I hate that about this sport.

And that's like the most obvious example ever of it being a safety.

Everyone loves a safety and the referees refuse to afford them.

It's like the most exciting play.