Bob Kagan

What did we demonstrate in this war that we could start it, but we couldn't finish it, that we could hit Iran, but we couldn't protect our allies in the region?

You know, the UAE is arresting people for taking pictures of the damage that's being done by Iranian weapons.

Right.

So they are not so far net beneficiaries of this.

And they certainly aren't looking at the United States as the solution to their problems, since clearly we are not the solution to their problems.

So the biggest takeaway from this is

I'm not at all sure we have increased our credibility.

I think we may have decreased our credibility in dealing with Russia and China, not to mention the boon that this war has been for Russia specifically in its war against Ukraine.

We're going to read a very good article in Foreign Policy Magazine right now, which is basically recounting this distinguished former American ambassador to South Korea, who has spent his whole life in South Korea, basically an American, telling the South Koreans that they really need to start striking out on their own now because the United States has become completely unreliable.

And

You know, we are focused on how the breakdown of our relationship with Europe, but the Asia relationships are also breaking down for all the reasons you say.

It's already the case that South Korea is starting to ration gas and other things with government vehicles, and they may put limits on people using it.

But it also, it ripples through all of their industries, not just the oil and gas, etc.

So they're

They're suffering.

And their choice is, and this is what this former ambassador recommended to them, and it is the case, which is go nuclear, take full control of the South Korean military, which is currently jointly run by the United States and South Korea, and move closer to China.

If the United States is not going to be there for allies, people are going to have to make their accommodations.

Now, in the case of Japan, I don't think they can move closer to China.

I think the bitterness between them is too great.

And I don't think Japan wants to be part of the Chinese sphere of influence.