Brad Setser
speaker
466 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Apr 2025
Brad Setser’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So that's the theme.
Yes.
The most obvious is that, you know, the US is the one country that currently doesn't import any cars from China.
I mean since the trade war, uh China's become the world's biggest auto exporter and the US market is effectively for now walled off.
Uh if you look at China the bilateral trade data between the US and China, the first thing to note is that they no longer agree.
In the bilateral data from the US side, we think our trade with China has gone down.
And significantly.
If you look at that same data from the Chinese side, China thinks its exports to the US are broadly unchanged.
На усеназ exports to Europe, the obvious counterfactual, have gone up.
So there's some evidence of a bilateral decoupling.
There is a lot of evidence of tariff avoidance.
And then at a global level, there's no real evidence of a serious decoupling or fragmentation.
Because a serious fragmentation, in my view, at least, is one where China runs a smaller surplus with democracies, where China trades balances.
That clearly hasn't happened.
I mean in all honesty, I think it's because uh Donald Trump won the twenty sixteen election.
Donald Trump believes tariffs matter.
Donald Trump is uh he's a tariff man.
He really is.
The other one is look, there is absolutely no lobby, powerful lobby, that is pushing back against importing more pharmaceuticals from Ireland.
Uh and there's a very powerful lobby that wants this current pattern to remain.
Showing 201–220 of 466 · page 11 of 24
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