Brad Setser
speaker
466 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Apr 2025
Brad Setser’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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That is a story of continuity.
It's a story of globalization continuing because there's a tax advantage tilted globalization.
But then the other component of the argument is the one that sort of irritates people.
I looked at the data.
Everybody tries to look at the data.
And uh you know, if you look at the data for China.
Biggest economy and the biggest potential source of fragmentation.
I mean you can fragment with Russia, which has happened, but fragmenting with China would be big.
And uh
I didn't really see the evidence.
So China's exports to the world are up by about of manufacturers, or up by about a trillion dollars since 2019.
So since the peak of the trade war, since the pandemic.
China's imports are up, manufacturers up 200 billion.
China's surplus of manufactured goods is up 800 billion.
And I'm pretty confident because I have some sense of magnitude that that's not all trade with Russia.
There's a little bit which is trade with Russia, but it is mostly because trade deficits amongst democracies have risen.
So the classic offsets to China's surplus are the deficits in the UK, the US, and India, not geopolitically aligned with China, but the global counterpart.
So my overarching thesis is the world has continued to globalize, uh, but in unhealthy ways.
Unhealthy because there's still a lot of tax-driven globalization.
and unhealthy because this increase in China's exports is a reflection of deep weaknesses which have already been discussed in China's domestic economy, which make China incapable of growing at the pace it wants, without relying more, not less, on exports.
Showing 181–200 of 466 · page 10 of 24
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