Brad Setser

speaker
466 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Apr 2025

Brad Setser’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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It already has achieved this.
Partially because it still has somewhat significant tariffs, and partially because it only collects 1% of GDP in personal income tax, which is a very low number.
We collect eight.
So
That to me is necessary.
It's a part of the broader policy package that generates a more balanced Chinese economy, but it is not something that the US Congress can change.
So the other component for addressing unhealthy globalization is something the US Congress can change, which is the US tax law.
So my immediate priority, if I were given advice to hopefully President Harris, would be: look, there's a budget negotiation.
Washington, DC will be consumed with the expiration of the tax cuts.
2025 is a fiscal year.
It is a year which is set up in DC to debate the structure of taxation.
And Republicans, and this is conventional wisdom, have an incentive to come to the table because if nothing happens, we have a cliff and tr all of Trump's personal income tax cuts expire.
Republicans don't go to Washington to raise people's tax.
So they have an incentive to bargain.
And my hope would be, as part of that bargain, some of the remaining incentives in the corporate.
tax code that have clearly encouraged or not discouraged the migration of intellectual property and production outside the United States get addressed.
That'd be where I'd start.
I also think one of the the tensions, you know, one of the tensions in trade's po Chi uh Trump's trade policy was that bilateral tariffs are way less effective than he thinks.
You can get around them really easily.
You put, you know, ninety-five percent Chinese content, a few screws in Southeast Asia, you go to a zero tariff rate.
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