Carissa Véliz

speaker

349 appearances 4 recordings 4 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard 12 Jun

Carissa Véliz’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 2.

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Something You Should Know · What Your Attachment Style Reveals & The Trouble with Predictions · 20 Apr 2026 podcast

And having data but not having the right data can sometimes lead us astray by making us think that we can just project the future from data from the past, when in fact we're looking at something that is substantially different from what we've seen before.

Yes, and for the most part that is obviously a smart way to navigate the world.

If every day the sun comes out it seems like a good bet that it's coming out tomorrow as well.

Except there are cases in which it doesn't.

So one classical example in philosophy is that of a turkey who is being fed every day and taken care of, and every day that passes the turkey feels safer and safer and better well cared for.

And in fact, every day that passes he's more at risk because Thanksgiving is nearer and nearer and nearer.

It depends on the circumstances.

So when we talk about...

systems of justice, when somebody has committed a crime and they're facing jail time, we might think that it's better to have very clear criteria of how many years somebody goes to jail based on what they did, as opposed to trying to make a guess

about that person that might be completely wrong and that cannot be contested.

So one of the interesting things about prediction is that it's very hard to argue against it.

So for example, let's say that you ask for a loan to a bank.

And if you had asked for that loan 30 years ago, they might have said, look, you need X amount of dollars in your bank account, or you need this salary to get this loan.

And then

Either you had it or you didn't, and if you didn't, you knew what to do to get the loan.

And if you did have it and there was a mistake and you didn't get the loan, you could say, well, just look at my bank account.

I do have these X amount of dollars.

So it's a contestable decision.

But if you ask for a loan and I don't give it to you on the basis of a prediction of what I think you will do in the future, there's no way you can contest that because

Predictions are not facts, and so you cannot say that it's false.

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