Chris Giles

speaker

229 appearances 10 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2011 last heard Jan 2015

Chris Giles’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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More or Less · Ash Die Back and Fergie Time · 23 Nov 2012 podcast

I think it's very hard to say. matched

I think there are plausible arguments for why you might think the multiplier is higher than it would normally be. matched

And there are two main arguments for this. matched

One is that interest rates in most advanced economies are zero, so monetary policy or interest rates can't offset fiscal tightening. matched

So if you cut spending or raise taxes, you can't have an offsetting cut in interest rates to boost the economy. matched

So that might make the effect bigger, but it's not certain. matched

People don't agree on that. matched

And the second argument is that if all countries are simultaneously cutting spending or raising taxes... matched

then you can't effectively export some of the difficulty to other countries because they're doing it as well. matched

The exporting works such that some of the spending of dibble, for example, would go on imports. matched

So if you bought a German car, if you sack him and he can't buy a German car, it's Germany that suffers, it's their economy that suffers. matched

not the British economy or the Trumpton economy. matched

Well, I wasn't very impressed because I didn't think it was robust to changing the number of countries they used in their statistical analysis or the year, the time period over which it went, which if it was a general result... matched

It should be robust to all of these sorts of changes. matched

And I went in, I replicated their numbers so I could get their result, and then I changed the number of countries you used because it wasn't obvious why they'd chosen the countries they'd chosen. matched

So you took some away or you added some more countries? matched

I took some away and added some in. matched

I just tried to use as much data as there was on the IMF's website. matched

And then because they based their results on forecasts made in 2010, I said, well, if this is a general result... matched

the same result should apply if you take the forecast they had made in 2011. matched

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