David Murrin

speaker

471 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 29 Jun

David Murrin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

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So the chaos of the gap basically was shorter by creating a foundation that would seed knowledge for the next building of an empire.

So that's a good example.

And I think probably I read that as I was very young, and I suspect that idea was rooted in my mind as I unfolded my work.

And I have to give Asimov great credit for the vision he created in that book that really has been my life.

What gave me the conviction to predict like that?

The body of knowledge that I built, the study of every empire and how it worked, and also another cycle.

because it's one thing to have these empires rise and fall, but I suspected there was some kind of drumbeat to the rhythm of it.

So I needed to find where that drumbeat came from.

And I'd come across a Russian economist's work,

called Kondratiev, who saw a 54-56 year cycle.

He lived in Russia, and it was a commodity-based cycle, where commodities rose and fall according to that cycle.

Ultimately, he lost his head in the gulag because Stalin didn't like him in the late 20s, 1920s.

But what he noted was higher interest rates, higher inflation, higher commodity prices, and conflict.

And that was when I first saw it back in 95.

That was the beginning of the confluence between my world of finance and war and the study of conflict and its synchronicity.

And so when 2001 and 2002 came along, I became acutely aware that the commodity cycle or new contractive cycle was about to start.

And I positioned all our investment vehicles to that end successfully.

But what really worried me was what happened at the peak of that cycle.

And that's why I started to study how these peaks affected conflicts.

And I have sort of manifested a, how can I say this, a much more comprehensive version of Kondratiev's understanding of conflict dynamics.

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