Dean W. Ball
speaker
545 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Dean W. Ball’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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The data acquisition for long horizon might be extremely non trivial.
There might be long horizon things that are hard, but if the thing can think in two minutes for more than I've thought in my entire lifetime about a problem, that is still a profound thing.
So that's my basic estimate for the next couple of years.
If if we stay in the deep learning paradigm or not even deep learning, but if we stay in our current L L M paradigm or something vaguely like it, and we don't go into Carl Friston style active inference or some other totally crazy branch.
The one thing I think about aut I I I do think automated research is like going to happen and I I I can't I don't understand there's people on the internet who tell me that's science fiction and it's oh my god, it's like
Super duper not science fiction.
It's like happening right now and like there are benchmarks.
Anyway, it's a serious thing.
But the I I think that compute bottlenecks are often not considered enough for people that are thinking about this.
Because I think what the automated research, at least in the the near-ish term, gets you is like
All these little engineering enhancements that make it so that you that that get you from GPT four to GPT four oh mini, right?
All of that stuff, the thousands of little tricks that are involved in doing that, you automate that.
And so that instead of taking eighteen months or a year, takes a month, right?
Or two.
But ultimately there's gonna be some point of diminishing return on that kind of work.
There's not an infinite possibility space there, I don't think.
I think somewhat counterintuitively they'll make us use compute more efficiently, which will actually end up increasing the demand for compute quite substantially, because we're gonna get to the point where you need to level up to another model level, like you know, a an another order of magnitude to really make any further progress.
Sam Altman goes around talking about seven to ten trillion dollars in compute
infrastructure development.
I think that sounds about right.
Showing 181–200 of 545 · page 10 of 28
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