Dr Shane Oliver

speaker

94 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 28 Jul

Dr Shane Oliver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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FEAR & GREED | Business News · Q+A: Is the sharemarket about to get a reality check? · 28 Jul 2026 podcast

But on the surface, it looks okay.

So it can be confusing.

If you just look at the overall index, nothing going on, but beneath the surface, it can be very messy.

And I suspect we'll probably see the same thing this time around.

that you're going to see a lot of turbulence.

Those that miss will see those 10% falls.

Those that beat, and beaters are highly valued these days, will see good gains.

Well, I think, unfortunately, we've probably still got some more upside.

And I don't want to sound overly hawkish here, but I reckon I've been sort of wrong over the last few years.

I was sort of right.

We eventually got rate cuts through 2025, but I thought the economy would be a lot less inflation prone than it turned out to be.

And so I've been concerned about weak productivity, lack of spare capacity in the economy and so on, and the concerns that a lot of people are concerned about falling living standards over the last few years.

But I didn't realise the extent to which that had made the economy more inflation prone.

And now I think the RBA is fighting a bit of a battle here, because if you include this year, where we're going to be above target

for another year.

So that means five of the last six years, including this year, we'll see inflation above target.

Now, 2024 was below target because of the energy rebates, which was artificial in a way.

So bottom line is the longer we spend above target, the less credibility it would have.

And RBA Governor

Bullock in a speech that she delivered this week sort of highlights or alludes to that almost, that you've got to work harder in this environment of continuous shocks almost to preserve credibility in terms of getting inflation down.

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