Gareth Spence
speaker
154 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2025
last heard 31 Oct
Gareth Spence’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Oct 2025 with 1.
Appearances
Yeah, I think that's I mean, I I think that's the challenge here, right?
I think we've pursued a f clearly as we've talked about before, a bit of a different strategy.
So, you know, we've only had three cuts.
We peaked at four thirty five, so a little bit below New Zealand.
Um and and you know, I think we're always going to come down a little bit more gradually and you know, in in true you know, you know, fashion in in this role.
We put out a note last month saying, you know, kind of Goldilocks Glow is what we called our forecast outlook and and the recent
run of data and uh then all of a sudden we kind of start questioning whether that's maybe a a little bit been a little bit derailed.
But I think, you know, largely for Australia it's still a positive story.
Um, you know, I think the fact that the cash rate might stay at three point six for for the next little while is is reflecting that the economy actually is quite resilient.
So um, you know, certainly for for mortgage holders and those with debt it it does mean a period of higher rates.
But actually
It also does reflect that, you know, for the most part
The economy is quite resilient.
Um, you know, the unemployment rate is still low.
Uh one of the factors, you know, as Doug sorta said, there confidence is certainly weak for consumers in Australia, but actually uh it looks like spending has picked up quite strongly through the first half of twenty twenty five.
Uh and, you know, looking at our kind of internal transactions data and the ABS kind of monthly household spending indicator, looks like that Q three number for spending is going to be quite
solid again.
And so what what that means effectively is household spending.
you know, is going to be about two and a half percent annually in real terms, right?
That's actually our best outcome since since mid twenty twenty three, uh, after kind of that that real boom coming out of the pandemic.
Showing 121–140 of 154 · page 7 of 8
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