Gavin Friend

speaker

7,937 appearances 60 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 2 Sep

Gavin Friend’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Oct 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · A succinct and hawkish Fed · 17 Jun 2026 podcast

So several points I think to highlight.

Okay, let's start off the top.

Nine of 18 Fed officials now see at least one rate hike this year.

So the median dot uh uh point is is is risen from 3.375 to 375.

The median dot for 27, 3.625 from 3.125.

So just slightly backing off that.

Note the new Fed chair did not submit a dot plot.

This had been speculated on by the by the media.

We didn't know whether it would happen, and he confirmed he did not uh submit one, he doesn't find them useful.

So the first takeaway is is hawkish in terms of a shift by at least half the uh the committee.

Right, but those but they're just a quickly.

But just a quickly just quickly

Not he's he is not this this is this is a man that was not sounding dovish, uh pledging really to tackle inflation and really querying the two sided mandate, less emphasis on unemployment.

Anyway, new set of economic projections that we get in this summary of economic projections once per quarter, core PCE for this year, now at three point three from two point seven, uh up to two and a half.

Next year from 2.2, underlining why there was a shift on the committee in terms of the dots.

Not much change in GDP.

Actually, 2.4 we saw in uh March down to 2.2, so slightly weaker this year, and then uh next year 2.3 unchanged.

Not much going on in terms of uh the unemployment forecast.

So inflation forecasts back up that more hawkish.

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