Gavin Jackson
speaker
1,127 appearances
18 recordings
4 series
first heard May 2026
last heard 26 Jun
Gavin Jackson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 18 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 10.
Appearances
It's still always painful to watch because you know that the market is trading on incorrect assumptions and it's setting up in the current case what I think is a giant bear trap.
People will get sucked into trying to go short oil at the wrong time and basically underweight their energy exposure in their various instruments that they trade.
Again, most of our clients are involved with
stocks equities, but it's a giant bear trap and this idea of
Why focus on inventories?
It's kind of like a person who works out and eats well and they step on the scale and last week they weighed 230 and a month from now they weigh 220.
You say, well, what you're doing works, right?
The scale is telling you whether your exercise and eating is helping you lose weight.
You do a BMI, you're trying to lose fat, etc.
But the scale is, in this case, inventories.
There's 168 oil-consuming countries, there's 84 or 83 oil-producing countries, but everything manifests in inventories, which is why there is a very strong inverse correlation or inverse fit between inventory levels and oil prices.
When you look at that and you model it, it's actually extremely powerful.
We built a model called MICA.
Our clients are very familiar with it.
And the R-squared of that regression is about 82%, which for econometrics is pretty damn good.
That's a gold model, right?
I can explain 82% of oil price movements by what is happening to inventories.
There are other things that go on that affect prices as well.
When you start talking about disconnects like the one we're getting now, it becomes really critical to make sure you're doing all your work on the physical market, what's happening with inventories, what's happening with production and what that's going to do to balance, what's happening with global demand rates, etc.
But if you get caught up in the momentum of a downdraft like people are right now, you're going to end up selling the bottom.
Showing 701–720 of 1,127 · page 36 of 57
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