Gerd Gigerenzer
speaker
43 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2014
last heard May 2014
Gerd Gigerenzer’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsNo recordings in the last 12 months.Older appearances are listed below; set an alert to hear about the next one.
Appearances
Yeah, most people intuitively say, no, I stick with my door.
Possibly because they think it's a 50-50 chance.
There are two doors, one or two.
And if I switch, I regret it.
So I'd rather do nothing, stick with it.
The surprising answer is that in this textbook problem, the best choice is to switch.
That's the typical story.
But now the real twist comes.
The Monty Hall problem is about risk.
Everything is known.
And Monty has to follow rules.
In an uncertain world, it's an illusion to think that probability theory will give you the optimal answer.
What we need is both probability theory for situations where we can calculate the risk, but also smart heuristics or rules of thumb and good intuition in a world where we can calculate that.
So the simple rule of thumb is better than the optimal rule?
If a problem is highly unpredictable, as in the stock market...
If you have many options, so many parameters to estimate, and little data, then make it simple.
Yeah, most people intuitively say, no, I stick with my door.
Possibly because they think it's a 50-50 chance.
There are two doors, one or two.
And if I switch, I regret it.
Showing 1–20 of 43 · page 1 of 3
Next →